The ANC, which has governed SA for three decades but is beset by financial, administrative, operational and governance challenges is “struggling” to impress voters a month before the crucial 2024 general elections, the latest survey by global market research firm, Ipsos, shows.
The survey was released on Friday, a day before the country marks the 30th anniversary of the democratic dispensation and is in line with several other surveys which show support for the ANC could fall below 50% for the first time since 1994. This could force the governing party to enter into a coalition with smaller parties.
The latest Ipsos survey is based on the views of 2,545 registered voters who were interviewed by “trained Ipsos interviewers” in their homes and in their home languages. The interviews were conducted from March 9 to April 15 in all provinces, including settlements in rural areas.
Ipsos said the results were weighted and projected using the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) registration figures which show “27,698,201 South Africans are registered to vote in the 2024 elections”.
“All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, sampling methodology and response rate. The sample error for this sample at a 95% confidence level is a maximum of plus or minus 1.9%,” Ipsos said.
According to the latest survey, ANC support could fall to 40.2%. This is down from the 40.5% it polled on February 6, and the 43% it polled on October 27, 2023.
The DA, the country’s official opposition, polled at 21.9% — up from the 20.5% on February 6, and 20% of October 2023.
The EFF, SA’s third-largest political party, could receive 11.5% of the vote, down from 19.6% in February and 18% in October.
The Umkhonto weSizwe (MK) party led by former president Jacob Zuma could receive 8.4% of voter share. There are no figures for the party in February and October 2023.
The IFP polled at 4.4% (February: 4.9% and October: 5%); ActionSA 3.4% (February: 4.3% and October: 4%); Freedom Front Plus 1.8% (February: 2.1% and October: 2%); and other parties 8.4% (February: 8.1% and October: 8%).
The survey found the ANC is struggling to impress votes and that its support base was concentrated in rural areas.
“Nationally, only 38% think that the ANC will live up to their election promises and consequently support for the ruling party is well below 50%.”
Ipsos noted the DA was managing to attract the support of about “a fifth of the electorate”, while the formation of the MK party halted advances the EFF had made in recent years — “mainly in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) — with some former EFF supporters migrating to the new party”.
“Uncertainty is highest in KZN, with almost a fifth of the electorate saying that they do not (yet) know who/which party they will vote for. Not surprisingly, IFP support is mainly concentrated in KZN, while ActionSA support comes mainly from Gauteng,” the survey said.
Support for the IFP is strongest in KZN having received 16.34% of the vote in the 2019 general election. That increased to 24.24% in 2021 making it the official opposition there.
KwaZulu-Natal has been a hive of activity as election day approaches, with the ANC, EFF and IFP holding manifesto rallies in the province between February and March.
The emergence of the MK party has added another element to voting.
The MK voting pool is similar to that of the ANC, which is facing its toughest elections yet as the electorate has grown tired over the ANC’s underwhelming performance in government, and a slew of socioeconomic crises pertaining to high unemployment, low economic growth, violent crime, corruption, maladministration and a lack of access to housing, water, energy, and healthcare.
Of the more than 27-million registered voters, the economic hubs of Gauteng and KZN account for 23.6% and 20.7% respectively, making them “key provinces to keep an eye on in this election”, according to this latest survey.
Ipsos noted 55.24% of registered voters are women and political parties “will do well concentrating on the views and opinions of women during the last month before the elections”.
The market research company stressed the figures in the survey should not be seen as a firm prediction of possible election results, “as the next month will no doubt bring much volatility and change to the political environment”.
Several political parties including the ANC, EFF and IFP are set to hold their final election rallies in the coming weeks — a last throw of the dice to try to appeal to the hearts, minds, and conscience of the electorate ahead of the May 29 polls.
Correction: Monday April 29 2024
An earlier version of this story had the incorrect number for MK in the Ipsos poll.
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