Faced with the possibility of losing its electoral majority for the first time in three decades, the ANC has unleashed its political might by deploying veterans on the campaign trail as it bids to restore its credibility.
Corruption allegations, factionalism and the emergence of splinter parties such as uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), COPE and the EFF have all helped to weaken the ANC. For the first time in more than 30 years it faces a real chance of failing to win a majority.
Voter turnout is central to the ANC’s election campaign, as enticing loyal supporters to vote in the May 29 polls could keep the party in power and avoid unwanted coalitions.
Former president Thabo Mbeki, deputy presidents Kgalema Motlanthe and David Mabuza, former Mpumalanga premier Mathews Phosa and former Gauteng premier Tokyo Sexwale have been deployed by the party to mobilise its voter base and inspire supporters to cast their ballots.
“Now it’s not about mobilising voters but consolidating your base, and voters know these veterans,” an ANC national executive member who declined to be named told Business Day.
Mbeki, Motlanthe and Mabuza have all come out against former president Jacob Zuma, urging him to comply with the disciplinary proceedings instituted against him by the ANC for contravening the party’s rules by campaigning for MK.
Zuma, who’s suspended from the party, is a popular politician in KwaZulu-Natal — by far the largest province in terms of ANC membership.
The three have hit out at Zuma, who is now working to oust the party he led for nearly a decade.
In a media briefing on Sunday, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said Zuma’s disciplinary hearing has been postponed and will be held at a yet to be determined date after the elections.
The postponement of the hearing, which was due to be held at the ANC headquarters in Johannesburg, was due to a security assessment which found that a large crowd that was likely to gather outside the venue might result in violent or disruptive behaviour and so was not advisable, especially so close to election day, Mbalula said.
But the postponement could have made sense for political reasons as well. Zuma has effectively used his court appearances as a platform to portray himself as a victim of the system and to campaign on national television.
Race against time
“Indeed they are frightened by the advent of MK ... up until Jacob Zuma took over as president of ANC they never won KZN. With Zuma the party won the province,” political analyst Sandile Swana said.
With three weeks to go before the polls, the ANC is in a race against time to convince voters to head to the ballot box.
The latest survey by global market research company Ipsos shows ANC support could fall to 40.2%, an untenable situation that could force the party to enter into a coalition with smaller parties.
The poll found the ANC is struggling to impress voters, and most of its supporters are concentrated in rural areas.
Over the next two weeks, all the officials from the national executive committee (NEC), provincial executive committees, the Women’s League, the Youth League, the Veterans’ League and its alliance partners, including Cosatu, the SACP and the SA National Civic Organisation, will hit the campaign trail in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng to try to counter the threat of losing these provinces.
The two provinces represent a combined 44.3% of SA’s 27-million registered voters.
In KwaZulu-Natal over the next week the ANC is aiming to reach 2,500 voter districts through door-to-door campaigns, according to a high-level ANC provincial executive committee (PEC) member who spoke to Business Day on condition on anonymity.
The provincial leadership campaign will be reinforced with provincial veterans, including former premier Sbu Ndebele, former provincial deputy chair Mike Mabuyakhulu, former health minister Zweli Mkhize, former justice minister Jeff Radebe and minister in the presidency for women, youth & persons with disabilities, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma.
“The president [Cyril Ramaphosa] is expected to campaign for four days in the province. We are done with rallies now. We have to face voters,” the PEC source said.
The MK party is expected to make major inroads in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province, where it has focused its campaign as the newcomer fishes from the same voting pool as the ANC.
Cosatu spokesperson Matthew Parks has said the union federation’s campaign would be focused on mobilising its 2-million members to vote for the governing party by organising workplace and site meetings, and by showing support during large ANC campaigns.
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