Until very recently, my baseline scenario was that no political party will bridge the 50% threshold in the upcoming general election.
As part of this baseline scenario, it has been my view that the ANC will fall below 50% at national level and in provinces such as Gauteng.
But it seems the probability of the ANC garnering less than 50% of the vote at national level is receding by the day. With less than two weeks left before the elections, ANC supporters are asking themselves two questions: first, should I vote?
Second, if I do vote who shall I vote for? To these questions what some ANC supporters have added is the fear that, if they do vote, they will vote for the ANC again.
In other words, they would rather not vote for the ANC and the only way of avoiding this problem is to stay away on election day. That’s because if they don’t, they will find themselves voting for the ANC not withstanding their misgiving about its weaknesses, failures and what it has become.
From the perspective of such ANC supporters, there is still no credible alternative to the ANC.
In short, opposition parties, particularly the DA, have not convinced those in the support base of the ANC who are ready to abandon the ruling party that they are fit to govern and do a better job than the ANC.
The only party that seems destined to pose a serious challenge to the ruling party is the MK party of former president Jacob Zuma.
Opposition parties, particularly the DA, have not convinced those in the support base of the ANC who are ready to abandon the ruling party that they are fit to govern and do a better job than the ANC.
The DA unfortunately has, once again, chosen to shoot itself in the foot, as it always does before an election. This time, the DA’s chances of eclipsing the ANC have been incinerated by the burning flag. The DA seems to have forgotten what the primary goal of political communication is supposed to be.
The main objective of political communication is to alter the political environment to your advantage. Preaching to the converted within your support base and alienating voters outside that support base is both imprudent and unstrategic.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the flag burning gimmick is going to expand support for the DA outside its traditional support base.
The move betrays two things: first, the DA is still married to its paternalistic, colonial mindset. That renders the DA impervious and insensitive to the sentiments of those who fall outside its traditional white support base. It is because of this that the folly of some of the messages that went with the flag burning advertisement escaped the DA.
For instance, in the advertisement, the DA voice refers to a doomsday coalition of the ANC, EFF and the MK party. It claims that the ANC will try to hold on to power by any means possible, including violence.
Unfortunately, what the advertisement does is paint the ANC, the EFF and the MK party with the same brush as those who have a tendency towards violence as a political strategy.
In doing this, the DA does not distinguish between the ANC, the EFF and the MK party.
What is it that makes these three parties indistinguishable?
They all have one thing in common: these are political parties that, in the main, are supported by black people.
Clearly, the DA has chosen to position itself as the racist anti-black party that many a black voter still fears may take SA back to the dark days of apartheid.
Objectively, this may not be true, but it is the subjective orientation of such black voters that will militate against the DA defeating the ANC in these and future elections.
Unfortunately, for reasons different from the attempts by the DA to undermine the ANC have been matched quite ably by the equally ineffective campaigns of other opposition parties, perhaps with the exception of the MK party.
Therefore, there seem to be only two scenarios worth talking about. Either the ANC will win a relative or an outright majority.
In the case of the former, there is growing support within the ranks of capital and big business for an ANC DA coalition government because such a coalition would represent policy predictability and certainty when it comes to economic policy.
Will capital and big business have their way? The doomsday coalition that DA leader John Steenhuizen is so hysterical about is something we should not rule out.
What may militate against such a coalition arrangement, however, are two possible deal breakers: first the EFF insisting that Floyd Shivambu should be the next finance minister. The ANC and its friends in capital are not going to accept this.
Second: neither the MK party nor the EFF want President Cyril Ramaphosa to be elected for a second term as head of state.
On the other hand, all these considerations may be become moot if the ANC achieves more that 50% of the vote. As matters stand, this is a scenario I am not ruling out.
• Matshiqi is a veteran political analyst in SA
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