State-owned special risks insurer Sasria expects isolated pockets of post-election protest ifthe ANC’s electoral majority declines to 40%, forcing the party to form coalitions with other parties.
However, Sasria CEO Mpumi Tyikwe said if the ANC won more than 48% of the vote, there was a slim chance of protest or instability.
The ANC is expected to win the largest share of the vote but it may lose its majority, according to various polls, which predict the party falling below 50%. Opposition parties are putting their hope in the ANC losing its majority, compelling it to form a coalition at national level.
The ANC is under pressure to retain its majority status amid growing frustration over corruption allegations within its ranks, factionalism and the emergence of splinter parties such as uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) and the EFF, which have weakened it.
“If it gets to about 40% it means that it has to make some choices about whom it selects as a coalition partner. The question is: will those people agree with the ANC in so far as to who should run the country? That’s where the problem is,” Tyikwe said.
“I do not see an election [rerun] but those are the two election scenarios we are working [on] ... one brings uncertainty. That uncertainty can make people react in uncertain ways.”
Sasria provides insurance for damage caused by political and non-political protests, labour unrest and terrorism. It received claims to the value of about R32bn after the July 2021 riots, when looting and unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng caused widespread theft and damage to property.
Concerns have been raised that some MK members may participate in protests after the election in former president Jacob Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, where no party is expected to win an outright majority.
The Constitutional Court ruled Zuma is ineligible to run for parliament in the general election due to his 15-month jail sentence for contempt of court in 2021. The Electoral Act bars anyone who has been sentenced to prison time of more than 12 months from standing as an MP. Zuma, however, remains as the MK party’s representative on the election ballots.
Law enforcement agencies are on high alert over threats of political unrest, including in central Durban, Pietermaritzburg, Estcourt, Richards Bay and Ladysmith.
KwaZulu-Natal law enforcement authorities have deployed 17,000 police and other security personnel across all voting districts to prevent violence during and after the polls. This includes 632 voting stations identified as high risk.
KwaZulu-Natal has been a hive of activity in the run-up to the polls, with the ANC, EFF and IFP holding rallies in the province in February and March.
Unlike in 2021, when “faceless” people were responsible for the riots and unrest, Tyikwe said that for the current elections law enforcement agencies were more aware of hotspot areas and people who were likely to instigate violence.
“We have a better sense of where the challenges might be given that some people have cast aspersions on the IEC. That has helped the security cluster to be more focused ... In our assessment we will not have anything close to July 2021,” Tyikwe said.
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