The ANC says there have been no substantial negotiations with any political parties it has met as the first round of exploratory coalition talks started on Monday.
The party’s first deputy secretary-general, Nomvula Mokonyane, said the party has met the DA, IFP, EFF, Patriotic Alliance and the National Freedom Party.
The ANC also reached out to uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) as it “wants to meet everyone” to move SA forward.
The engagements are understood to have been brief, with the promise to continue with the negotiations after the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting scheduled for later this week.
“There have not been any substantive conversations on how we can collaborate. We are still trying to talk to everyone,” Mokonyane said in an interview with Business Day on Monday.
She also dismissed media reports of ANC proposals to the DA and vice versa, adding that the NEC first had to consider the party’s interests and those of the nation at its meeting.
“Respect that we need to work with everyone who will move SA forward,” she said.
Sources within the DA, which won 21% of the votes in the general election compared with the ANC’s 40%, said the party was expected to propose that it be given strategic positions in parliament such as that of the National Assembly speaker and heads of portfolio committees as part an arrangement with the ANC.
In this model, referred to as “supply and confidence”, the ANC would be in charge of the executive and retain the positions of president, deputy president and several cabinet positions.
“The supply and confidence model allows the DA to hold the ANC accountable in parliament but also allows the DA to not be responsible for government failures,” said a DA federal executive member close to the talks.
The DA’s alternate proposal is understood to involve a coalition between the two parties in which cabinet positions are shared between the two. In this model, the DA would also work with the IFP, whose members would be accommodated within the executive.
The two agreements would prevent the ANC from co-operating with either the EFF or MK party — a condition that the ANC would have to agree to if it wants to work with the DA.
Another member of the federal executive said discussions should be confined to parliament and not extended to provinces, especially if one party holds a big majority. This implies that the Western Cape is not up for consideration.
Top brass
Meanwhile, the ANC’s negotiating team is expected to meet the party’s top brass on Tuesday and Wednesday to get a clearer mandate on which negotiations to pursue before the meeting of the NEC, its highest decision-making body.
The negotiating team includes Mokonyane, ANC chair Gwede Mantashe, secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and NEC member Nkenke Kekana.
Market watchers have been mulling over the possible outcome of an ANC-EFF coalition, fearing a partnership between the two could result in capital outflows, while a coalition with the DA is expected to provide stability and policy continuity.
The rand was fairly strong on Monday compared with its Friday close, while bonds had opened a bit weaker but firmed throughout the day.
Markets are seemingly comforted by recent comments by the DA implying that it is prepared to make it work, the ANC supporting President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position and saying his position won’t be compromised, and finance minister Enoch Godongwana saying the ANC will maintain its current economic policy and stick to the course.
These comments were excellent for the financial markets, said Sanlam’s head of fixed-income investment strategy, James Turp.
“Considering that the ANC said it will use the full two weeks available to negotiate a coalition and that they will not make an ‘irresponsible’ move, also helped calm investors’ nerves,” Turp said.
“Should we get through the next two weeks with a reasonably promising coalition turnout, markets could have a positive run. But with all the uncertainties in politics, we can expect a few bumps, one being parties joining a coalition having to give up on some serious policies to make things work and how all [aspects] play out,” he said.
“Potential post-election governing scenarios range from an ANC, DA and IFP coalition, which markets would favour due to the promise of more policy reform, stronger implementation and a firm stance against corruption,” said Johann Els, Old Mutual Group chief economist.
“Alternatively, a government of national unity involving the ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP. While this option offers broad buy-in, it could be seen as detrimental to policy and growth due to potential conflicts.
“An ANC minority government supported by the DA and IFP might maintain current policies but could be viewed as less stable. An ANC, MK and EFF coalition would be the least favourable outcome unless there is a strong consensus to continue current ANC policies, which is unlikely.”
The ANC suffered its most humiliating defeat at the polls in 30 years as its share of the vote plunged almost 17 percentage points, from 57% in 2019 to 40% this year.
While the ANC bled votes, the DA retained its status as SA’s official opposition party with 3.4-million votes, or 21.75%, while the new political kid on the block — the MK party led by former president Jacob Zuma — became SA’s third-largest party with 2.3-million votes, or 14.6%.
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