SA has given its strongest indication yet of a vote of confidence in the government of national unity (GNU) through ballots in by-elections around the country in recent weeks.
Last week, the IFP had a strong showing in Mtubatuba, KwaZulu-Natal, while the ANC and the DA swapped seats in two other elections in the province.
The Patriotic Alliance retained a seat in Oudtshoorn, the Western Cape, while the ANC remained dominant in the Eastern Cape.
But most eyes were on Thabazimbi in Limpopo last week.
In Thabazimbi, more parties contested the ballot than the number of seats available and the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, which fared well in the May 29 general elections, did not perform as well as it expected.
MK party was even beaten by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union’s (Amcu’s) newly formed Labour Party and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), that obtained two seats each and 8.7% of the vote for both parties, respectively, while MK party and the Thabazimbi Residents Association only got a single vote each.
The Labour Party, whose policies are still under formulation, contested by-elections in 12 wards in the Thabazimbi Local Municipality, which was dissolved by the province in October over the dysfunction caused by infighting in the ANC-led coalition that is in charge.
The contest in Thabazimbi was a keen focus for Amcu’s Labour Party, which hoped to cause an upset to the apparent monopoly of the ANC and DA in electoral politics in SA.
The ANC won only 10 of the 23 wards in Thabazimbi and that means the party did not get an outright majority and will have to form a coalition.
The results could put the ANC in a difficult situation unless it forges a coalition, most probably with the DA, FF+ or EFF.
Electoral analysts Wayne Sussman said coalitions were here to stay and MK leader Jacob Zuma had set a precedent “that if he can, now everyone thinks they can too”.
“If you drill down, the vote spray in the outcome of by-elections shows people like choices,” Sussman said.
He said while the ANC was stronger in by-election results in KwaZulu-Natal and had reclaimed some lost ground from MK party since the May 29 general ballot, the IFP was doing much better.
MK party, meanwhile, seems to be pushing hard to make inroads in the country, mostly through turning ANC and EFF councillors in municipalities to force fresh elections, where the party seeks to enter the governance fray.
So far though, and in KwaZulu-Natal at least, Zuma’s party has not shot the lights out in by-election outcomes since the general elections.
Political commentator Mcebisi Ndletyana said that President Cyril Ramaphosa, as leader of the ANC, needed to be more decisive if the party was to regain its mantle as the leader of society.
“It is typical of Ramaphosa to be indecisive, he does not show bold leadership and that is what is required if the ANC is ever to win back some of its electoral losses,” Ndletyana said.
KwaZulu-Natal was the epicentre of a huge political shift in the 2024 election.
Zuma’s support base in the province catapulted his party to the third largest in parliament and the title of official opposition.
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