Economic growth and “bread and butter” issues are likely to trump traditional race politics in shaping SA’s future political landscape, the latest polling by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) has shown.
The IRR’s communication head, Hermann Pretorius, presented its latest survey on Tuesday, which produced a surprising outcome: for the first time, the DA’s electoral support outstripped the ANC’s due to the impasse over VAT in the government of national unity (GNU). Finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s proposal to hike VAT by half a percentage point for each of the next two years has sparked a crisis in the GNU leading the seventh administration.
The ANC and the DA are in talks in a bid to “reset” their relationship but the erstwhile opposition party’s continued participation in the GNU is far from guaranteed — its potential exit could culminate in a cabinet reshuffle. Stripped to the bone, the disagreement between the two parties is about more than the VAT hike; rather, it centres on the GNU’s inability to accelerate economic growth, which parties to it will be judged for by the electorate come the next general election in 2029.
The poll showed support for the DA in the poll stood at 30.3%, while the ANC’s support stood at 29.7%. It also showed support for the DA among black voters increased dramatically, rising from 5% to 18%.
The poll also shows the before the budget disagreement between the two parties, the DA’s participation was favoured above that of the MK party and the EFF. However, an increased preference for MK and the EFF’s participation was registered during the disagreement over the VAT hike. That was after the DA failed to make progress in reversing the tax increase. Support for all parties opposing the VAT hike jumped during the study period.
Pretorius emphasised that a poll was not a prediction of future election results but a snapshot in time of sentiment among registered voters. The institute conducted its field work at the height of the budget impasse from March 27 to April 3, polling 807 registered voters, with a margin of error of about 4% and confidence levels of 95%.
“The ANC … has lost the initial goodwill it had gained through its role as a constructive founding party to the GNU. This loss of goodwill is likely due to the fact that the party has not used its time in the GNU to moderate its policy stances to resemble the still-remembered pro-growth pragmatism of the [former president Thabo] Mbeki years,” the IRR researchers say in the report.
Should the political debate remain on terms of
— Pro-Growth or Pro-Poverty, IRR polling report for April 2025
socio-economic opportunity where the ANC has proved politically weak, its core support could
contract further, towards 20-25% nationally
While Pretorius said the poll was conducted during the VAT impasse, a period of time outside of the ordinary or an “aberration”, there are trends emerging from the study with longer-term implications for the political landscape.
A central theme that emerged was that pro-growth, “bread-and-butter” issues were trumping race and identity politics.
“The dominant national narrative that will shape the future political landscape, will be pro-growth, focused on bread-and-butter issues versus more traditional wealth redistribution with racial undertones,” Pretorius said.
“It shows the strength of the DA and parties like the EFF and MK can have if they counter what is perceived as the ANC’s lack of response to socioeconomic concerns and economic growth, if they can redefine that debate,” he said.
The ANC’s move to scrap the VAT hike following a series of meetings with parties inside and outside the GNU could see it regain support; however, that would not be sustainable over the long term unless real progress to grow the economy began emerging and trickling down meaningfully to South Africans.
“The ANC is still competitive, if it returns to an era of Mbeki-era pragmatism, … if the ANC can rediscover it, it could reclaim public trust and electoral strength.”
Former President Thabo Mbeki registered the highest levels of economic growth during his second term in office and that translated into a two-thirds majority of support for the ANC for the first (and last) time in the 2004 general election.
“It is a big if but the ANC has proven itself to be pragmatic … the question facing the party is whether it maintains enough pragmatism to see that its self-correction lies in not doing new things necessarily but returning to an economic consensus that had been clearly established, clearly beneficial in terms of job creation and clearly beneficial to the party at the ballot box,” Pretorius said.
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