NEWS ANALYSIS: ANC taking blows in SA by-elections

The ANC has been the biggest loser in by-elections since the 2021 local government polls.

While most of about 350 wards contested since then have been retained by the incumbent party — usually the ANC, DA or IFP — the ANC is about 40 wards lighter since the 2021 municipal poll. 

This is according to a deep dive by electoral analyst Paul Berkowitz, who says the ANC has lost to a variety of opponents. 

“The party lost 20 seats to the IFP, 10 seats to the EFF, seven seats to MK, six each to the PA and DA, and other seats to independent candidates.

“The party pared its losses by winning six seats from the DA, and two seats each from the EFF, IFP and independent candidates. In addition to the 20 seats the IFP won off the ANC, the party won a seat from Al Jama-ah, Abantu Batho Congress, Team Sugar SA and an independent candidate.

“The party lost two seats to the ANC and one seat to the NFP. All of the party’s wins were in KwaZulu-Natal wards,” Berkowitz told Business Day. 

This does not bode well for the ANC ahead of the next local government elections. It shows a serious lack of presence on the ground.

Since 2014, the ANC has suffered consistently huge electoral losses in SA’s urban centres, which it has failed to recover from at the polls.

Since 2016, the ANC lost its council majority in four metropolitan municipalities — Tshwane, Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Bay and Ekurhuleni. This created an opportunity for opposition parties to form coalitions to achieve the mayoralties of these municipalities and severely affected service delivery.   

While most of the ANC’s decline happened under former president Jacob Zuma, he surprised many in late 2023 when he launched the MK party and it subsequently emerged as a main player in the 2024 general elections. 

Hardly five months after its founding, MK got 45% of electoral support in KwaZulu-Natal and became the third-biggest party in parliament.

But former DA CEO turned political analyst Jonathan Moakes said a deeper look at MK’s performance in by-elections since then speaks volumes about the sustainability of the party. 

“MK had a slow start in by-elections, losing its first few contests between February and June 2024. After the 2024 general election, however, the party picked up momentum and has won eight wards over the past year. Even in the wards that MK hasn’t won, it has usually placed in the top three parties. Its recent wins in Rustenburg (North West) and Saldanha Bay (Western Cape) may hint at the party’s growth outside KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga,” Moakes said. 

If the ANC does not soon recover its support, it stands to be the biggest loser in the next local government elections in urban centres, including KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. 

This would also threaten the ANC’s standing in the national government of unity — a 10-party coalition formed by the ANC when it lost its majority, dropping to 40% of the vote, in the 2024 general elections. 

omarjeeh@businesslive.co.za