Late former deputy president David Mabuza’s profound political legacy is set to continue to shape SA politics long after his death.
The tangible evidence of his legacy remains embedded in ANC politics and is likely to shape the outcome of the 2027 elective conference — and by extension the SA presidency and government in 2029.
It was his political manoeuvring in the run-up to and at the ANC’s 2017 Nasrec conference that led to Cyril Ramaphosa’s ascent to the presidency and the rise of deputy president Paul Mashatile to a spot in the party’s top leadership after his election as treasurer-general.
Mashatile, as deputy president, is now the clear front-runner in the ANC’s succession race.
Mabuza’s imprint, as he sought to break the grip of slates and factional politics in the ANC at that conference, could however also culminate in Mashatile’s demise in the race for the party’s top job.
Mabuza, to be laid to rest on Saturday with a category 2 state funeral, began his political career in the mid-1980s.
A psychology graduate from the University of SA, he obtained a national teacher’s certificate from Mgwenya College of Education. He was the secretary of the Azanian Students’ Congress, a chair of the SA Democratic Teachers Union and chair of the ANC in Mpumalanga from 2008 to 2017.
It was during that period that “the Cat” built a reputation for ruthlessness, with allegations of corruption, factionalism and even political assassinations clouding his time as both an MEC and premier of Mpumalanga.
It was apt that he formed part of the faction aligned with former president Jacob Zuma during its most powerful period in ANC politics.
He formed part of the “premier league”, along with the premier and chair of the Free State, Ace Magashule, and the North West, Supra Mahumapelo, during this time.
As the nation observes a five-day period of mourning after Mabuza’s death at 64 due to illness while at a Joburg hospital last week, it is worth reflecting on the seismic shift in congress politics that Mabuza birthed at the ANC’s Nasrec conference in 2017.
The Zuma faction within the ANC was unassailable.
The former president, who has now formed the MK party to take on the ANC from the outside, was relatively comfortable that his candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, would win the ANC presidency and he would hand over the baton to his former wife.
A leader in her own right, Dlamini Zuma was unfortunately cast simply as a Zuma proxy at the time, a means through which Zuma would continue the destructive work he started during his two terms as president: to bend the state and its institutions to the will of his own factional interests.
Mabuza, chair of the second-largest province with the second largest delegation at the conference, was anxious, nervous about the prospect of creating a “Zuma dynasty” in the ANC.
Mabuza was a strong man. He was no ideologue, he was pragmatic, a numbers guy and he knew he had the numbers. He used it.
— Senior ANC member
It did not help that at the time there was talk that Dlamini Zuma was not keen on Mabuza as her deputy, but tolerated him on her slate for the numbers his province would guarantee to her bid for the presidency.
Long-time financial backers of the ANC and of Mabuza himself, including businessman Robert Gumede, were also nervous about the prospect of a Dlamini Zuma presidency.
“Mabuza was a strong man. He was no ideologue, he was pragmatic, a numbers guy and he knew he had the numbers. He used it,” a senior ANC source who was close to him at the time tells Business Day.
Mabuza set about shaking up the game — pulling together a slate of his own, dubbed the “unity”.
He would ditch his drivers and protectors and chauffeur himself to Gauteng, for instance, to meet his counterpart in the province, Mashatile.
Little known to the Zuma or Ramaphosa faction, Mashatile and Mabuza had formed a bond that culminated in Mabuza declaring “where you die, I will also die there” to his Gauteng counterpart.
For both men, backing Ramaphosa was not an option — it was essential to stop Zuma, even though both were not entirely confident in Ramaphosa’s abilities.
When the conference arrived, Dlamini Zuma’s number crunchers continued to count on Mabuza’s support. He even appeared at her caucus gathering at a nearby venue as the conference progressed.
At the last minute, he directed his provincial delegation to vote for Ramaphosa, blindsiding the Dlamini Zuma faction. Ramaphosa emerged victorious, but Mabuza received more votes than even him or any other candidate in the top six.
Mashatile was propelled to the top echelons of the ANC’s leadership after decades as a Gauteng leader.
The move was seismic — Mabuza left the conference early due to “illness” according to some, but sources close to him told Business Day he left because he had received death threats.
“Mabuza broke the back of slate politics at that conference... slates are dead and this is a good thing because slates divide the ANC and a divided ANC is a weak ANC,” another source says.
The Mangaung conference followed a similar trajectory, with Mashatile running effectively on his own ticket and the likes of former Zuma hardliner Nomvula Mokonyane ascending into the top seven leadership of the ANC.
What Mabuza did was turn ANC succession politics upside down — Mashatile has benefited from this, but it also means that his tenure as deputy president does not guarantee him the presidency. Aside from upsetting slate politics, Mabuza’s intervention also introduces the need for pragmatism in succession politics.
The decision for the ANC come 2027 will have to be broader than which leader appeals most to ANC branches. Instead, it must be who is the best person to lead the ANC into the next general election, where it could be further reduced from the 40% it obtained in 2024.
It is now an existential question, more so than it was in 2017.
Some in the ANC believe the party needs another Mandela — and campaigns around the likes of Patrice Motsepe, now vying for the party’s top spot, speak to that belief.
However, Ramaphosa’s tenure shows that would-be messiahs are overrated and perhaps Mabuza-style chutzpah to turn party cultures and norms on their head is required to boost the party’s fortunes.
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