Mokoena bungle could still come back to haunt Bafana

Mathematically, Bafana Bafana may still need two wins from their last two matches in October to be sure of qualification for the 2026 World Cup, if Fifa docks three points over a suspension bungle. 

The South Africans, though, will hope things transpire in a way they don’t need maximum points, given their only remaining realistic challengers, Benin, face two tough games and seem likely to drop points. 

On form, Bafana will even be optimistic they can score wins against Rwanda and last-placed Zimbabwe in two games to be played in SA. 

After all, they took four points from the games in September, beating Lesotho and drawing with Nigeria.

SA have their strongest line-up in two decades, the best coach overseeing it and talent emerging in spades, some of whom were fielded in September’s matches, many who are yet to break into Bafana, such as the Amajita stars who won their U20 Africa Cup of Nations in May. 

SA also know, though, nothing is certain in football and sometimes the “easier” games can backfire. 

One thing is certain, the side heavily favoured to progress to the first 48-team World Cup next year in Mexico, Canada and the US from Group C is SA. 

Bafana have 17 points from eight matches having suffered one defeat, 2-0 away against Rwanda on an appalling surface in November 2023. 

Second-placed Benin beat Lesotho 4-0 on Tuesday night to remain in the hunt three points behind on 14. 

As things stand, one win from their last two matches would see Bafana officially qualified.

However, they would not want to take a chance on Fifa still docking them points over the error of fielding Teboho Mokoena when he should have been suspended in the 2-0 win against Lesotho in Polokwane in March.

Strangely, FIFA's disciplinary outcomes for that round of matches have come out and Bafana were not sanctioned. The SA Football Association will be hoping it escapes unscathed because its argument that Lesotho did not protest within the prescribed period has been accepted by Fifa.

However, there is much precedent for Fifa stepping in to sanction teams for such offences when the evidence is clear without any protest having been lodged.

The noise being made by opposition FAs in Group C over the lack of a sanction might force Fifa to still take action.

Three points docked as things stand would leave Bafana level with Benin on 14 points and only three ahead of Nigeria and Rwanda (both 11).

One win from their remaining two games would mean Nigeria and Rwanda would need maximum points from their two matches to draw level with SA. In that scenario, Bafana’s superior goal difference (+8 at present to Nigeria’s +2 and Rwanda’s 0) should keep them ahead of those two.

In Fifa tournaments, goal difference and not head-to-head results apply when points are level.

However, Benin have six points left to play for in their remaining games against Rwanda and Nigeria, though both are tough and away from home.

If points are docked and Benin and SA do end level, Bafana’s goal difference should also prevail if they keep ahead of Benin’s, which is +4 presently. 

Broos said ahead of this month’s two games he would love six points but would be happy with four.

He knew if his team beat Lesotho, doing the same against the star-studded Nigerians would be tougher, but as long as SA did not lose the second match they would be in a healthy position.

By drawing against the Super Eagles, Bafana have left their fate in their own hands. Even with points docked they really should attain their first World Cup qualification other than as hosts since 2002.