Trump USAID cuts could cause over 14m additional deaths by 2030, study shows

Washington — Deep funding cuts to the US Agency for International Development and its potential dismantling could result in more than 14-million additional deaths by 2030, according to research published in The Lancet medical journal on Monday.

President Donald Trump’s administration, since taking office in January, has made funding cuts to USAID and its aid programmes worldwide in what the US government says is part of its broader plan to remove wasteful spending.

Human rights experts and advocates have warned against the cuts. USAID funding has had a crucial role in improving global health, primarily directed towards low and middle-income countries, particularly African nations, according to the study.

Dismantling

The study estimated that over the past two decades, USAID-funded programmes have prevented more than 91-million deaths globally, including 30-million deaths among children.

Projections suggest that ongoing deep funding cuts — combined with the potential dismantling of the agency — could result in more than 14-million additional deaths by 2030, including 4.5-million deaths among children younger than 5 years, the study in The Lancet said.

Washington is the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor, amounting to at least 38% of all contributions recorded by the UN. It disbursed $61bn in foreign assistance last year, just over half of it via USAID, according to government data.

“Our estimates show that unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030,” the study said.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said in March the Trump administration cancelled over 80% of all programmes at USAID after a six-week review.

The remaining approximately 1,000 programmes, he said, would now be administered “more effectively” under the US state department and in consultation with Congress.

Reuters