Donald Trump’s surprise US presidential victory is bad news for sub-Saharan Africa, Fitch Group subsidiary BMI Research said in a note on Friday morning.
Firstly, it means less US aid money for the region.
"Trump has indicated that he plans to pare back US aid abroad, especially to countries that ‘hate’ the US. In terms of the countries most likely to be targeted, we note that those with historically weaker ties to the US such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be vulnerable," BMI wrote.
"After Trump’s inflammatory comments against Muslims, it is also possible that countries with large Muslim populations (especially those which could be painted as breeding grounds for Islamist terrorism such as Somalia or Mali) could be lumped in with those which see their aid cut."
Secondly, a Trump victory likely to result in a tightening of immigration standards which will weigh on remittance inflows to sub-Saharan Africa.
"Trump has indicated that out of the estimated 11.3-million undocumented workers in the US, he would target up to 6.5-million for a ‘swift removal’.
South America would suffer most. Among African countries, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria are the most reliant on the US, and even in these countries, US remittances account for less than one-third of total inflows, BMI said.
Trump was unlikely to scrap the African Growth and Opportunities Act, but new free trade policies were unlikely, BMI said.
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