When Anil Agarwal, the Indian mining billionaire, acquired a significant stake in Anglo American, speculation swirled about his intentions as it came less than a year after his failed proposal to merge his company and the mining giant.
In the process, however, Agarwal, the owner of Vedanta Resources, became the second-biggest shareholder in one of the world's oldest mining houses.
Now, six months later, with his 12% stake, Agarwal is free to pursue whatever strategic plans he may have for the miner after the expiry of the period imposed by UK takeover law that forced him to remain a passive investor.
The industrialist can now get a seat on Anglo's board and influence forward-looking decisions in the company.
Analysts were reluctant to speculate on what his next move would be, now that he was free to act.
They were not too confident, however, that Agarwal would again pursue a merger between his company and Anglo because of a lack of synergy. Also, at this stage, such a transaction would upset both miners' shareholders.
One of the reasons is that both companies have just resumed returning investment back to shareholders.
To merge or not to merge
An analyst, who did not want to be named in line with company policy, said Agarwal was free to make a move, but the billionaire's stake in Anglo was not a controlling one, which had its limitations.
The analyst said he would be "... greatly surprised" if Agarwal proposed merger opportunities, and he did not expect such a proposal for at least the next two to three years.
"In the past shareholders have not been too happy with Vedanta.
"And now finally, the company is managing to simplify its structures and has reduced debt, and maintained a good dividend outflow.
"Merging would be negative for Vedanta and Anglo," said the analyst.
The Public Investment Corporation, with its 14.5% stake in Anglo, is the miner's biggest shareholder.
Last year, the PIC voiced concern about the Mark Cutifani-led company's strategy of exiting commodities such as iron ore, coal and nickel to focus on diamonds, copper and platinum.
Speaking to Business Times this week, Agarwal said he still felt strongly about Anglo's strategy.
The company will celebrate its centenary in less than three weeks.
"I am bullish on mining, and I think Anglo is an excellent company in the sector. Indeed, one of the reasons I invested was my respect for Anglo's management and my belief in their strategy," he said.
He did not answer when asked if he wanted a seat on the company's 13-man board, or whether he would increase his stake in Anglo through Volcan Investments, his personal investment vehicle.
Agarwal also did not respond to questions about whether or not he had been engaging with Cutifani or any of the other shareholders at Anglo over the past six months.
Since he acquired his stake on March 15, Anglo's share price has gained 24%, compared to a 8% rise in the all-share index.
In rand terms, the miner has increased the value of Agarwal's investment by about 24%.
A seat at the table
Peter Major, an analyst at Cadiz Corporate Solutions, said he was curious to see whether or not the Indian businessman would increase his stake in Anglo or take up a board seat.
There had been speculation that Agarwal would lobby other shareholders, including the PIC, to stand on his side, but Major said it was too soon for shareholders to align themselves with Agarwal because the billionaire had to prove he had better plans than those Anglo currently has.
"If we don't know what he is bringing forth then it would be hard for him to lobby. It's too early, the board and shareholders don't want anything dramatic right now," Major said.
Cynthia Carroll, the former Anglo CEO, served as Vedanta Resources chairwoman from September 2015 until February, a month before Agarwal bought a stake in Anglo through his family trust, according to Bloomberg.
Another analyst who did not want to be named said a lot had happened in the last six months, including the introduction of the new Mining Charter, which was viewed as a big game-changer for future deals.
What's in a stake?
The analyst said there were no immediate synergies between Vedanta and Anglo, but that Agarwal was probably trying to get access to the Ernest Oppenheimer-founded miner's global footprint.
In the meantime, he said, it was all a "... wait-and-see game".
Anglo's share price has appreciated about 50% in the past year on the local bourse. As part of its strategy, Anglo has managed to reduce its $12.5-billion debt to $6.2-billion.
Vedanta's London-listed shares have gained 66%.
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