President Jacob Zuma's audacious plans for free tertiary education - apparently drawn up by his prospective son-in-law - have deepened concerns about a "parallel state" operating beyond the normal rules and conventions of government.
Experts said the imminent announcement of the plan, devised by Morris Masutha, who is engaged to be married to daughter Thuthukile Zuma, would put unprecedented strain on South Africa's already pinched finances.
They said it would undermine the efforts of Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba, who is on an international roadshow to assure investors of the country's fiscal discipline ahead of two key rating decisions by the world's leading ratings agencies at the end of this month.
Zuma has apparently told the Treasury to revise the national budget and find R40-billion for 2018. He has yet to release the 748-page Heher Commission report on free higher education in spite of indications in a leaked version that universal free higher education is not viable.
Presidency spokesman Bongani Ngqulunga did not respond to inquiries and neither did the Treasury. Masutha allegedly crafted the plan in consultation with the Treasury and several other departments.
Andrew Donaldson, former deputy director-general of public finance at the Treasury, said one internationally acknowledged lesson from universal free education was that children of elites benefited most. "So from a [re]distribution point of view it doesn't make sense."
Completely in the dark
Prof Ahmed Bawa, CEO of Universities South Africa, said the organisation was "completely in the dark" about the developments. "We're in constant contact with the department [of higher education and training] and they have indicated that they don't know anything about it either. What I have heard is that the department was asked to engage this guy about his suggestions. We just can't see how the national fiscus can support such a thing."
The director-general of the Department of Higher Education and Training, Gwebinkundla Qonde, said the department had not been instructed to work with anyone other than a group comprising the Treasury, the Department of Public Enterprises and the Presidency.
At the moment I can't see what you politically gain by holding up the decision, it's just stupid.
— Adam Habib, Wits vice-chancellor
"It's the Presidency that is working on the matter and looking at various aspects and their implications with respect to the [Heher] report. We're not working with Morris," he said, adding he was unaware of a universal free higher education plan.
The country's largest universities are concerned over the lack of clarity for the next academic year, now just weeks away. Annually, tertiary institutions plan for an enrolment of about 200000 new students - free education would boost that number and put a strain on infrastructure.
Wits vice-chancellor Adam Habib said free universal higher education could be political but added there were all kinds of motivations.
"At the moment I can't see what you politically gain by holding up the decision, it's just stupid," he said.
Tuition fees shortfall
Habib said if Wits did not receive tuition fees, the government would have to supplement the shortfall.
"It costs R350-million a month to run Wits ... somebody has got to pay for that."
Tuition fees provided 45% of income for the Wits teaching budget, with a state subsidy covering the balance. Donors only provide money for specific bursaries and scholarships. Of the 37000 students at Wits, 25000 receive NSFAS funds.
The University of Cape Town will require close to R1.5-billion in tuition fees for 2018. Accommodation fees are budgeted to be more than R419-million.
Max Price, UCT's vice-chancellor, said tuition fees comprised 44% of the core university budget, which excluded residences and externally generated research funds.
Not only for lucky few
"Free education for all arguably needs to cover the accommodation and meal costs for all students, not just those lucky enough to get a place in residence. So, you could multiply the housing fees by four." This would amount to about R1.7-billion.
News over free tertiary education will only serve to sidetrack the Treasury when it is trying to alleviate concerns about the fiscal management of the country amid a R50.8-billion revenue shortfall.
Since Wednesday Gigaba has been placating investors at the fifth SA Tomorrow conference in New York, where the mood was described as "sombre".
Nicky Newton-King, CEO of the JSE and a member of the CEO Initiative steering committee, said investors - about 75 representing some of the largest funds in the US - questioned whether the national debt was under control and if "there is political will to rein in public sector spending".
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