BusinessPREMIUM

It's 2030 or bust for keen Mnangagwa

President outlines his 12-year plan to revive Zimbabwe's fortunes

Emmerson Mnangagwa.    Picture: REUTERS
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Picture: REUTERS

"It's not an event, but a process." That is how President Emmerson Mnangagwa views his plan to turn Zimbabwe into a middle-income nation in 12 years.

If successful, Mnangagwa would put Zimbabwe on par with the 25 countries in Africa that are recognised as middle-income nations by the World Bank. They include Botswana, Zambia, Ghana and Rwanda. (South Africa is classed as upper-middle income.)

A turnaround of Zimbabwe's economic fortunes in just over a decade would be a remarkable achievement for Mnangagwa, given that under former leader Robert Mugabe the economy was ruined and the country has been in isolation for close to 20 years.

In an exclusive interview with Business Times at his Munhumutapa offices in Harare, Mnangagwa said Zimbabwe had to play "catch-up" with fellow Southern African Development Community member states and was "very much behind" as it attempts to find its place in a global economy that has changed greatly in the past two decades.

"It's no longer business as usual. The way we had been used to doing business has changed," he said.

For a country that has been so out of touch with the rest of the world, everything appears daunting. There are now cryptocurrencies, platinum is giving way to lithium and there is an increase in social media connectedness, weakening the state's control over access to information.

All these developments passed Zimbabwe by as the economy plunged into free fall under Mugabe. Agricultural production fell, foreign direct investment dried up and hyperinflation dealt a further knock to the tanking economy.

According to the World Bank, middle-income countries are defined as having, among other things, a per capita gross national income of between $1,026 and $12,475 (R12,000 and R148,000).

The bank says middle-income countries represent about a third of global GDP and are "major engines of global growth".

For Mnangagwa to execute his plan of putting Zimbabwe back on the map, it is not money that he immediately needs, but time. His tenure of just over 100 days has elicited mixed reaction from citizens. His promises of swift change have been many, but delivery has fallen short of expectations.

Most crucially, Mnangagwa must also win an election, scheduled to take place in July, in order to have the mandate to roll out his plans.

It is likely that, if he wins, he will seek a second term, presumably to see through his more than decade-long plan of turning around Zimbabwe's economy. The country's constitution allows for two terms of five years each for a sitting president.

Mnangagwa's plan is anchored bythe revival of agriculture, manufacturing, mining and the roll-out of infrastructure projects.

With luck he will also get some buy-in from the West for his grand plans for 2030.

Britain in particular has been the biggest cheerleader of his administration - which marks a thaw in frosty relations with the former coloniser.

On Wednesday Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, arrived in Harare for bilateral discussions, in a further sign of the international interest in Zimbabwe, which continues to soar.

We have created a model that will see Zimbabwe become food self-sufficient

—  Emmerson Mnangagwa, President of Zimbabwe

Mnangagwa's eye is first on agriculture, the mainstay of Zimbabwe's economy, which was dealt a body blow by farm invasions in 2000 by war veterans, displacing about 4500 white commercial farmers.

"We have created a model that will see us achieve the goal that Zimbabwe becomes food self-sufficient. I don't see the possibility of us again falling into the situation of becoming an importer of our food requirements," Mnangagwa said.

"In the area of agriculture, the task is to make sure that our land becomes more and more productive, and we have identified what we must do to achieve that goal. We are also making sure that it remains clear that the land-reform programme remains irreversible."

In order to protect manufacturers, the country had adopted protectionist policies such as statutory instruments to curb the import of goods. These measures, however, have a short lifespan and have proved to be ineffective in the face of smuggling through the country's porous borders.

"The manufacturing sector is archaic and there is great need to retool and to leapfrog the state of manufacturing to the technologies that are now in existence," said Mnangagwa.

"What we have is very costly; it makes our goods uncompetitive in the regional or international markets. So it is necessary for us to modernise ... the manufacturing sector to become competitive in the region."

Dilapidated infrastructure has also crippled the country.

Mnangagwa intends to fix worn-out infrastructure, to meet the needs of the increased productivity he anticipates from agriculture, manufacture and mining.

"This will also be in the area of upgrading our roads infrastructure in the country, primarily to dualise our roads and to establish usable, state-of-the-art, modern highways in the country.

"We need to rehabilitate our railway system, which has drastically dropped in terms of its cargo-carrying; that is, in terms of taking our products to the sea or imports from the sea into Zimbabwe," he said.

"We have a programme both to rehabilitate and modernise our railway and the creation of more railway networks in the country and to create another railway line to the Indian Ocean, because we are faced with congestion with the port of Beira, Maputo and Durban, which we have been using.

"Zimbabwe and Mozambique have agreed to jointly develop a port north of Beira so that it can be to a great extent dedicated to moving our cargo."

Last month, Zimbabwe received refurbished wagons in the first instalment of a railway rehabilitation project overseen by Transnet and the Diaspora Infrastructure Development Group, a consortium of Zimbabweans living abroad.

The country has about 40 known minerals and the world's second-largest platinum reserves after South Africa.

"We need now to attract global players to participate in our mining sector and make sure that environment is made attractive," said Mnangagwa.

His administration has already committed to a review of the 51% indigenisation policy, which will now apply only to platinum and diamond mining.

Although in office for a relatively short-time so far, Mnangagwa's administration has already shown that it speaks the right language on investment and knows what to say to its attentive audiences.

"Zimbabwe is open for business" is Mnangagwa's mantra.

But whether he will fulfil his many promises is yet to be seen.

ndlovur@sundaytimes.co.za and mzi@sundaytimes.co.za

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