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Over to you now, Tito - make it work!

Just a single priority for Ramaphosa, but it's rather a vague one

Finance minister Tito Mboweni arrives to deliver his budget speech in Parliament in Cape Town on February 20 2019. Picture: REUTERS/SUMAYA HISHAM
Finance minister Tito Mboweni arrives to deliver his budget speech in Parliament in Cape Town on February 20 2019. Picture: REUTERS/SUMAYA HISHAM

This was President Cyril Ramaphosa's fourth state of the nation address. And where in the past he's had seven priorities or five tasks, this time there was just one: "inclusive growth".

It was, then, a message about growth and the economy. There were three focus areas on which he dwelt at length: energy supply, youth employment and sectoral plans.

None was new, but there was some new and different detail. That set the tone for a year in which, said Ramaphosa, "we fix the fundamentals". But questions remain about what was - and what wasn't - in the speech.

"Mildly positive" was the way Absa economist Peter Worthington described it, and by far the most positive signal for the market was the president's list of electricity measures. This time, it wasn't about fixing Eskom as much as it was about doing so while securing as much electricity as possible from outside Eskom.

Accepting powerful truths

At last, Ramaphosa and his cabinet colleagues seem to have faced up to the fact that Eskom is in an operational crisis, not just a financial one, and that some load-shedding is inevitable over at least the next 12-18 months. At last too, there's some acceptance that Eskom alone cannot provide SA with a reliable supply of electricity, nor should it try.

Ramaphosa spoke of "measures that will fundamentally change the trajectory of energy generation in our country", promising seven long-awaited measures to bring private-sector power into the grid. There were still few targets or timelines, but that the president said it, and said it loudly, was important and he will be judged on it.

Even Cosatu has at last come round, for the first time, to the need for some restructuring and redeployment (though never retrenchment) to get Eskom "fit for purpose" - hence the embryonic social compact at the National Economic Development and Labour Council over the past couple of weeks, which Ramaphosa hailed as historic.

With the economy likely to have gone into recession again in the fourth quarter of last year, mainly because of load-shedding, efforts to ensure a cost-effective and reliable Eskom and a secure supply of electricity from inside and outside the utility are the core economic issue and Ramaphosa will be judged on whether his government can make it happen.

His habit of endlessly seeking social compacts and avoiding firm decisionmaking has driven many to despair, including in his own government, but in this state of the nation address he portrayed it as a virtue - so it's also on this aspect of the address's economics that he should be judged.

Apart from the electricity compact and his monthly jobs summit meetings, the social compacting is also driving an effort to generate growth by getting labour, business and the government to work together in particular sectors in what could be seen as a new - and somewhat puzzling - approach to industrial policy.

The president listed "master plans" that have been agreed in the textiles and clothing, poultry and sugar sectors and soon will be agreed in steel. If these were growth sectors where protecting local production would enhance consumer welfare the choice might make sense, but mostly they are not.

If there was a signature intervention highlighted in the address it was the presidency's youth employment package, which was outlined in some detail this week, with a list of five priority actions.

It includes a new Presidential Youth Service programme, and an agreement reached this week in which all departments will "top-slice" 1% off their budgets to be re-allocated to youth employment schemes that, as the presidency's Rudi Dicks puts it, "take young people from learning to earning".

The 1% slice - details of which will be in October's medium-term budget policy statement - could see about R20bn go into schemes to train youngsters and enable them to access short-term work or entrepreneurial opportunities, improving their chances of making a living. Prototypes for these "pathways for young people into the economy" are to be launched in five provinces.

But paths to where? Unless the economy can grow and create sustainable jobs, those youngsters will, likely as not, find themselves unemployed again at the end of their one- or two-year "pathway" opportunities.

Oddly, for an address focused on growth, what was missing this week was any comprehensive commitment to delivering on key structural reforms that would create an environment for investment.

Electricity is obviously the crucial one, and Ramaphosa also committed in broad terms to the structural reforms proposed in the Treasury's recent growth document. But he mentioned only minimal reforms - water licences and company registrations, as well as ports and passenger rail. And he avoided mentioning his earlier commitment to jumping SA's ranking on the World Bank's ease-of-doing-business index. Broadband spectrum was mentioned, as usual, with the deadline now end-2020.

The presidency has in fact been hard at work putting teams in place to try to get some of the key structural reforms to happen. The president's Infrastructure Fund is a particular focus - Ramaphosa made much of the list of "shovel-ready projects" and the 10-year R700bn project pipeline promising cranes and yellow equipment soon.

But there were some quirky promises too -- a sovereign wealth fund (with what wealth, one might ask?) and a state bank (don't we have one already, the Postbank?).

Finance minister Tito Mboweni gets to give the details in his budget speech on February 26 - his wry expression during the state of the nation speech said it all.

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