SA's tourism sector needs to use "this quiet and dark period" to fix the structural obstacles that have been holding it back "so that when things turn, we're at the front of the gate", says South African Tourism CEO Sisa Ntshona.
"There are destinations across the world which are going through exactly the same pain as us, and believe me they're sharpening their axes as we speak to make sure that when the floodgates open they'll be able to come through ahead of others."
Even before the coronavirus brought tourism in SA to a halt the local industry was "badly hit by crises of our own making".
Government bungling over visas and e-visas, and a lack of airline connectivity - "when you've got a market like China with a billion-plus people and only one airline flying direct twice a week, it's a problem" - ensured that South African tourism was growing at less than half the world average.
"We have to deal with the crisis now to make sure we have a sector at the end of the day. But we also have to look through it to say what do we need to look like to be nimble and fit for purpose in three or six months' time?"
Ntshona is having weekly emergency meetings with the sector.
"The mood has moved from sombre to it's real, it's happening, to how can we make sure we have a tourism sector at the end of all this? I think we will have a sector, but it will be a changed sector."
Many existing players, those with fixed costs and no income, will drop off and new players will come in "because every crisis brings new opportunities".
"Structurally, we'll see a shift from fixed costs to more variable costs that you can manage based on the activity you're getting.
"We'll see more digital. Checking in at hotels where you don't need a front desk any more. You check in via your cellphone and use a code to open your room. New technologies are going to come through; we'll see the industry operating very differently."
Even before the
— Sisa Ntshona
virus brought SA
tourism to a halt
it was badly hit
by crises of our
own making
The increased use of technology will make a lot of jobs redundant.
"Our sector has been a bit slow in terms of how we deliver because the focus has been on being labour-intensive and employing people."
The pressure to provide as many jobs as possible won't go away.
"Therein lies the conundrum," he says.
"The industry that comes out the other end of the tunnel will have to be more competitive than the one we had before the crisis. We can't come out the same."
The government will have to play its part.
"For us to deliver on expectations we need the entire ecosystem to make it seamless, appropriate and relevant for our target audience around the world to be able to come into SA.
"Ports of entry processes, biometrics, data collection, visitor experience, safety and security. The entire thing, end to end."
He says the visa crisis has been sorted out in that unabridged birth certificates are no longer a requirement for non-South Africans coming into SA.
"However, it is taking time to wash itself through the system. It is difficult for consumers to undo certain perceptions."
Especially when the level of service at some ports of entry is still only 40%, he says.
He expects fiscal allocations for the industry to be under pressure after the crisis, which will force long-overdue changes.
"If there was ever any doubt about going digital or staying with tradition, this is going to take us over the edge. We'll probably go digital right across."
3%
The level of tourism’s direct contribution to GDP
The industry does scenario planning but did "not even come close to planning for something like this. Even right now we don't know what's coming. We just have to adapt to the crisis as it evolves.
"This is where the world of big data can make such a difference, help you be more predictive. So we're going to have to move more quickly into that space.
"A crisis sometimes pushes the needle far enough to force you to make decisions that previously you didn't have time or space to make."
A week ago, he was hoping domestic tourism would lift the sector. Then the first case of internal transmission was reported.
"That killed the domestic tourism play."
In fact, low economic growth ensured it was in trouble before the crisis.
"Growth is the name of the game. It's going to be very difficult to drive domestic tourism if we are in a state of recession."
Tourism makes a 3% direct contribution to GDP and 10% indirect.
Ntshona believes it can double these figures by 2030.
"That's the target we've set ourselves. We told the president we could do this but needed him to clear the way of the things that are holding us back."
He made all the right noises in his state of the nation address. "Now we need to see implementation."
Ntshona, 46, a former investment banker who was headhunted to be CEO of South African Tourism in 2016, has been cleared after a nine-month suspension following accusations by a whistleblower.
"Whistleblowing is so important for our country. The problem is when it is used as a weapon against people who may not be desired by someone else, and you have absolutely no recourse."
He says he still doesn't know what he was accused of.
"I would have appreciated the opportunity to respond before I got suspended. I was just told, listen, you need to go. We can't tell you what it is because it's so serious."
He has to remind himself why he took the job, he says. "The country and the sector were in a crisis. I could either be an armchair critic or make a difference."
The argument has just got a whole lot more compelling.
"There is no other country for us, this is it. We have to make it work."
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