As the Covid third wave gains momentum and pressure mounts for harsher lockdown measures, organised business is urging a nuanced approach that balances restrictions against the need to save jobs and keep the economy going.
Gauteng is the epicentre of the third wave and with hospitals at full capacity the government has been criticised for failing to impose tighter restrictions. But premier David Makhura has all but ruled out moving to a level 5 lockdown in the province.
At a Gauteng Provincial Command Council briefing this week, Makhura noted that decisions on lockdown restrictions were in the hands of the National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC). But he added: "One thing I want to emphasise is that closing down the economy is really, really unthinkable. It is inconceivable to introduce level 5."
He said that during the initial hard lockdown imposed in March last year a lot of resources were pumped into helping businesses and individuals, but this was not sustainable.
"But are there more restrictions that may include [elements of] level 4? I would like you to give us an opportunity to engage with our NCCC," the premier said.
Martin Kingston, chair of the steering committee of Business for SA (B4SA), said the organisation would support further restrictions under level 3, including extending the curfew and limiting numbers at venues, but every effort had to be made to keep the economy going "because we can't afford to shut it down".
Kingston said the government had to be careful in adjusting lockdown restrictions because of the fragility of the economy.
"We believe that there are significant impacts in terms of reductions in GDP if we go through level 3 to level 4 restrictions," he said.
"I think a level 5 lockdown is completely unrealistic and though I have seen some speculation, I don't think there is any prospect of that being the case.
"We are at level 3 at the moment and there is obviously scope for higher levels of intervention, but that would also have a potentially meaningful impact upon economic activity."
Sandile Zungu, president of the Black Business Council, which is also a member of B4SA, said the economy should not be shut down at all.
"Our view is simple, that businesses, especially small businesses, have been hit very hard by Covid and the mortality of small businesses is something to be taken into consideration when it comes to further responses and restrictions.
"Our natural response is: 'Please don't restrict businesses any further, just don't, because we are not a First World economy like those in Europe or America which can bounce back with relative ease.' "
Zungu said any resources available should be directed at enforcing behavioural change. "People must wear masks, people must sanitise, people must have fewer face-to-face meetings," he said.
"People must not have big funerals and people can delay weddings. Those kinds of things are behavioural change issues.
"But to shut down the economy and cause further hardships to SMMEs in particular, I think would be the most irresponsible thing to do."
Zungu said it was urgent that SA's vaccine rollout was ramped up significantly.
The point was echoed by John Dludlu, CEO of the Small Business Institute, who said: "Vaccines are our best hope against this virus."
From next week those over 50 will be able to register for vaccinations and private sector vaccination sites will be opened for use by those without medical aid.
The Minerals Council SA said mining sector workplace vaccination sites were gearing up to support the national rollout and 58 mining occupational health facilities had applied to register as primary vaccination sites.
It said some mine vaccination sites might also accommodate staff family members and others in the community.
Dludlu said a tougher lockdown would be "devastating, especially to SMEs".
"Any harder lockdown has to be accompanied by relief to households and firms. Relief for firms has tapered off, so it would be a futile exercise to close down the economy," he said.
SA needed "diligent enforcement of the existing measures by government", including mask wearing, sanitising, avoiding gatherings in closed spaces and practising social distancing.
Kingston said given that SA had to "vaccinate as much of the population as it can, as quickly as it can", any restrictions on movement had to be weighed against the fact that mass inoculation meant people had to be able to get to the vaccination sites.
He said B4SA opposed blanket alcohol bans and interprovincial travel restrictions.
Possible further curbs on alcohol sales were the "subject of very specific attention" and B4SA was constantly engaging with the government, directly and through the National Economic Development & Labour Council, on whether any additional measures were appropriate, "recognising the large number of jobs that have already been lost or are at risk".
Azar Jammine, director and chief economist at Econometrix, said rather than returning to the hard lockdown of last year in hotspots such as Gauteng, existing restrictions could be broadened.
He said most pandemics over the past century appear to have been characterised by three waves.
"I wouldn't go crazy worrying about fourth waves and fifth waves, especially if we start seeing more progress on the vaccination front."
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