It is human nature, when we see a start-up or new idea attract enormous investment or sales, to wonder why we had never thought of “that” idea. In many cases, many had indeed thought of it — but no-one was able to get traction until “that” version went large.
Very often it appears sudden, an overnight success, but may well have been many years in the making.
The first global apps, the first pervasive social networks, the first worldwide payment services, all came after numerous false starts.
In most cases, it was no secret that entire industries were trying to find the sweet spot. With blockchain and the first cryptocurrencies, no one saw them coming, but everything built on this foundation over the past decade has been an opportunity waiting for someone to hear the knock on the window.
The next waves of innovation, however, will not give us a 10-year window of opportunity. Just as the pandemic accelerated the uptake of digital technologies by businesses and consumers, it will hasten the emergence and evolution of new technologies and business concepts.
How, then, to be ready for that knock, without jumping at every noise?
Obviously, there is no roadmap or blueprint, or we would have real innovation taught at universities, as opposed to merely the philosophy behind it. However, there are two broad signposts that point in the direction of potential innovation.
The first is, simply, opportunity. It is the driving force behind most innovation in Silicon Valley, Shanghai, Tel Aviv, Berlin and London.
The second, more likely to be the driver of innovation across Africa, is more fundamental: need.
In other words, where the best and brightest of Silicon Valley look for gaps and opportunities they can fill with billion-dollar ideas, on this continent we tend to focus on improving people’s lives by providing them with much-needed access to resources.
Mobile money services took off in Kenya because of a desperate need for financial inclusion. Cross-border payment systems generated the continent’s first unicorns — start-ups with billion-dollar valuations — because they meet an urgent need for cost-effective and efficient means for working people to send money back to their families.
In the past this was known as the remittance economy and controlled by old-style financial multinationals. Now start-ups are running rings around the incumbents.
That still begs the question: where will we see the next big need?
The pandemic holds some of the answers.
In Silicon Valley, for example, we can be certain that numerous entrepreneurs are applying their minds to the global supply-chain crisis. From computer chips to chemicals to cars, the systems that connect the raw materials, manufacturers and distributors have not recovered from the initial shutdown of society in March 2020.
The opportunities for logistics to be reinvented are enormous. And there will be as many false starts as a new generation of unicorns in this sector.
The education system in SA, too, buckled under the strain of remote learning, socially distanced classrooms and teachers unable to adapt to the abnormal.
Online platforms are not the solution, especially across the many markets on this continent where broadband remains a luxury.
In short, look out for what the pandemic broke and what innovation could fix or improve. Just make sure you spot the difference between opportunity and need.
• Goldstuck is founder of World Wide Worx and editor-in-chief of Gadget.co.za
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