Transnet’s plan to get single-line rail operations from Durban to Gauteng restored by the second week of June may be too optimistic given the extensive flood damage to the system, logistics and transport experts say.
They believe there will be a more drawn-out recovery for the rail system, which will have to be extensively rebuilt, putting more pressure on an already congested road-haulage system.
The destruction of parts of the rail line between Durban and Gauteng has disrupted supplies of jet fuel to OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg, resulting in some long-haul international flights being diverted to Durban to refuel, or cancellations. About 70% of SA's jet fuel requirements are imported.
Transnet spokesperson Ayanda Shezi said a single-line operation from the coast would be restored by June 9, with double-line operations fully restored by September 30.
But Mike Walwyn, director of maritime affairs at the South African Association of Freight Forwarders, said the rail system was an “absolute disaster because of flood damage. Not a kilogram of cargo can move up that rail line at the moment. They say they will start moving cargo up the rail line in the first or second week of June, but I doubt it.”
Walwyn said the only way the June target can be achieved is if Transnet sets aside its normal procurement processes, “which are slow and cumbersome”, and that is unlikely.
Peter Besnard, CEO of the South African Association of Ship Operators and Agents, said both the June 9 and September 30 targets for rail restoration are questionable “unless a massive team and equipment is assembled” to undertake the project.
From the pictures he has seen of the two rail lines between Durban and Johannesburg, a “lot of the line will have to be lifted and recompacted to make it safe for a load to pass over”, he said.
Shezi said the targeted date was “informed by the scale and nature of the infrastructure damage from the flood” and that Transnet engineers had “assessed which sections of the double rail line can be restored in the shortest possible time in order to ramp up operations as soon as reasonably possible”.
“The date has been optimised based on resource requirements and without compromising quality of work or safety of our employees.”
Not a kilogram of cargo can move up that rail line at the moment
— Mike Walwyn, director of maritime affairs at the South African Association of Freight Forwarders
Shezi said that while Transnet Freight Rail was repairing the damaged infrastructure it was using an alternative solution to supply OR Tambo International Airport (ORTIA) with jet fuel, with 19 rail tank cars being loaded this week in Matola in Mozambique to “bring in approximately 1-million litres of jet fuel to ORTIA”.
In addition, a “slug of 20-million litres is being injected into the multi-product pipeline” overseen by Transnet Pipelines and is expected to reach National Petroleum Refiners (Natref) — a joint venture between Sasol and TotalEnergies — in Sasolburg between May 17 and 20. Natref produces a significant portion of locally produced jet fuel.
“The product will then be delivered to the airport via Natref to a jet-dedicated pipeline at the airport over a two-week period,” Shezi said.
Natref had committed to supply 16-million litres of jet fuel this week.
“Currently all oil organisations have sufficient stock to supply ORTIA, with the exception of BP and Shell who have declared force majeure as they are affected by the coastal supply,” Shezi said.
While rail between Durban and the Reef remains inoperable, congestion on roads between Durban and Gauteng is expected to continue increasing.
Walwyn said that normally about 20% of Durban’s containers move by rail, with the result that there will be additional strains on road haulage.
“A further complication is that many containers [about 2,800] had already been loaded on rail but now can’t move past Newcastle [because of the flood damage]. The plan is apparently to return them to City Deep, and you can imagine the delays and additional costs involved. A similar situation exists in respect of import containers that were loaded but can’t get out of Durban.”
Besnard said decisions will have to be made about switching to road for containers transporting motor cars from areas such as Rosslyn, an automotive industry hub near Pretoria. The rail line from Johannesburg to Durban could carry 1,000 vehicles per train, so the switch to road will “certainly impede the exports market”.
The amount of SA's jet fuel that’s imported
— 70%
In terms of imports, Besnard said that “everything destined for Johannesburg is going to be held up” as road haulage seems to be the only alternative.
“I was in Howick recently and coming back on the Monday after a public holiday I’ve never seen so many trucks coming from and going to Johannesburg. There are definitely more trucks on the road with bulk commodities/containers, cars and steel structures. Basically everything that has to be moved to Gauteng is now on the road.”
Walwyn said the export of citrus fruit, which will be in full swing at the end of May, is likely be relatively unscathed by the rail issue as most is transported by road to the port.
At a briefing on Monday hosted by the Airports Company SA (ACSA)— and including Transnet Freight Rail and Pipelines, the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the Board of Airline Representatives of SA, the Airlines Association of Southern Africa, the South African Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia) and the department of mineral resources & energy (DMRE) — it was said the jet fuel supply in SA was “stable”.
A joint statement said the CEF and DMRE were “working on providing approximately 1.5-million litres of jet fuel in the event that the mismatch between supply and demand is not mitigated”.
ACSA CEO Mpumi Mpofu said in the statement that while overall stock levels were stable, some suppliers impacted by force majeure were unable to obtain the quantities of jet fuel they needed.
Transnet Freight Rail declared force majeure in April after the floods, with some suppliers following suit. Force majeure is still in place.
BP Southern Africa spokesperson Hamlet Morule said the company had contracts with local suppliers and also imported fuel itself. BP had declared force majeure on the “back of not being able to supply additional product” to OR Tambo due to the “force majeure issued by Transnet Freight Rail”.
Sapia said: "As per previous statements issued by Sapia, there is adequate availability of jet fuel in the country. The challenge has been the movement of products due to the impact of the recent floods in KwaZulu-Natal."
Sasol said in a statement it “is confident that all jet fuel contractual commitments will be met, assuming stable operations at Natref”.
“Jet stocks are being managed whilst considering the current refinery operations and constraints resulting from KwaZulu-Natal floods. Sasol will continue to assess its operational performance in order to be able to support industry should the need arise,” Sasol said.
Linden Birns, MD of aviation consultancy Plane Talking, said ACSA and other stakeholders were “finally grappling with the logistical side of things in order to secure supplies”.
“Airlines were having to divert aircraft, so it’s good they have taken the bull by the horns and are doing something about it, but questions remain about the feasibility of meeting the June 9 self-imposed deadline to reopen one of the railway lines.”
Significant strides are being made in restoring the main Bayhead road network in and out of the Durban port, with three of the four lanes now operational.
Besnard commended Transnet's Port Authority and Port Terminals divisions for their work.
Walwyn said the Durban port was “doing surprisingly well”.
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