The conflict in Ukraine is an opportunity for African countries to realise the benefits of becoming less reliant on other regions for trade, thus avoiding the geopolitical risks of certain ties.
Prudence Sebahizi, director for institutional matters and programmes co-ordination at the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) secretariat, speaking to Business Times on the sidelines of the AfCFTA Business Forum in Cape Town last week, said the continental trade agreement will allow Africa to fill gaps created by the war as it removes trade barriers and archaic trade regimes to grow Africa's $3.4-trillion (about R61.6-trillion) GDP.
The agreement seeks to make Africa home to the largest free-trade area in history, where African economies are well-connected and enjoy largely tariff-free trade.
“AfCFTA is for Africans. You cannot look at it from the global context, even if the geopolitics outside might affect us in one way or the other. But those geopolitics must be seen as opportunities.
“If, for example, Africa has been relying on imports from Russia and today we are not getting enough, then we should be able to fill that gap. We should start producing what Russia [sells] to Africa.”
Contrary to being a threat to African economies, Russia’s war should be seen as an “opportunity” to drive the region to become more interconnected and develop more finished goods to sell to its 1.3-billion consumer base, Sebahizi said.
African states have been warned, at least tacitly, about the potential risks of exposing themselves to Russia as they continue to rely on trade with Western economies through arrangements such the US's African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).
Heightening pressure on South Africa to take a position, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrest in March. He is expected to visit South Africa in August for the Brics summit.
South Africa’s trade with Russia is almost insignificant if compared to the EU, China and the US. Western sanctions on Russia do make it riskier for South Africa to trade with Russia, but also make Russia even more interested in the South African market as western markets become closed to it
— Steven Gruzd, head, South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) Africa-Russia project
Asked for comment on this at the AfCFTA Business Forum, Naledi Pandor, minister of international relations & co-operation, said the decision on what to do if Putin comes to South Africa is best left with President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Ayanda Ntsaluba, a member of the South Africa chapter of the Brics Business Council, admitted Russia’s war and the way it has polarised economies presents a minefield for this country, as a Brics member state, and for the African continent.
“That is a concern. You don’t want to close doors as you open others for trade. We really believe that while the issue of resolving the Russia situation is a political challenge, and it is a major challenge for economics, we must ensure governments are sensitive to the challenge. I am sure African leaders are engaging on this.”
South Africa’s proximity to the situation as a Brics member, African state and signatory to the Rome Statute means the country must handle the matter sensitively, but other Brics leaders are likely to be understanding of its precarious position, Ntsaluba said.
“We also acknowledge that when we host [the] Brics [summit], we must be sensitive to the fact that we don’t own Brics. The way we act as we try to balance our own obligations must be informed by the fact that we don’t occupy that space alone,” he added.
Tensions with Europe and the West are undesirable, but South Africa is capable of finding a way to resolve the tension, said Ntsaluba.
Steven Gruzd, head of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) Africa-Russia project, said while South Africa risks upsetting Western countries due to its friendship with Russia, the country has, until now, mostly been given a “free pass” regarding its actions on the country.
“South Africa’s trade with Russia is almost insignificant if compared to the EU, China and the US. Western sanctions on Russia do make it riskier for South Africa to trade with Russia, but also make Russia even more interested in the South African market as Western markets become closed to it.”
Gruzd added that he does not believe South Africa's participation in Agoa necessarily hangs in the balance due to its position on Russia because the act only runs until 2025 and there are few signs it will be extended.
“But it is a unilateral US policy and could in theory be revoked at any time, perhaps to punish South Africa. Some junior Republican congressmen have introduced a bill calling on the US to thoroughly review its relations with South Africa, though this seems to have stalled, as has the bill seeking to punish Africa for co-operating with Russia, which is seen to promote 'malign activities’ in Africa,” Gruzd said.
Appeasing the US and Russia has always been a delicate balancing act for economies such as South Africa, he said, adding that a big win would be for Putin to participate virtually in the summit and not be on South African soil, though this is unlikely.
While Russian economic ties with South Africa are minimal compared with those of the West, relations with both are likely to continue as this country will probably claim non-alignment, said Gruzd.
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