Scenarios for South Africa’s future energy mix in the draft integrated resources plan (IRP) 2023 include a delay in decommissioning coal-fired power stations, using clean technologies to add more coal-fired power and rolling out more than 14,000MW of new nuclear power.
The IRP 2023 also makes it clear South Africa will continue to experience electricity supply shortages at least until 2027 unless there is a “significant” improvement in the performance of Eskom’s coal-fired power plants.
Published by the department of mineral resources & energy (DMRE) for public comment on Thursday, the plan provides a road map for future energy planning and private and public procurement of new generation capacity. It will replace the IRP 2019 once it is adopted.
According to the revised plan, South Africa will “continue to pursue a diversified energy mix that will provide security of supply while ensuring compliance with its emission reduction plan”.
‘Given the abundance of coal resources in the country’ it will continue to play a ‘significant role in electricity generation’
— IRP
But, “given the abundance of coal resources in the country” coal would continue to play a “significant role in electricity generation”, it said.
Nevertheless, the rollout of renewable energy is set to increase rapidly through private and public procurement.
The IRP 2023 estimates that the removal of the licensing requirement for private generation provided for in the IRP 2019 had resulted in the registration of projects with a potential generation capacity of more than 6,000MW.
The IRP 2023 provides energy mix scenarios for the period up to 2030 and a second period up to 2050.
For both periods, one of the biggest risks is Eskom plant performance, which, as the IRP 2023 shows, deteriorated from an energy availability factor (EAF) — generation performance as a percentage of total installed capacity — of about 85% in 2010 to about 55% last year.
In the different scenarios developed for the two review periods, the IRP 2023 considers the repercussions should plant performance continue to deteriorate and the EAF drops to 51% by 2030. The plan also makes provision for a scenario in which EAF improves to 69% by 2030, which assumes Eskom successfully implements its generation recovery plan.
Another risk highlighted in the new IRP is the need for Eskom to comply with emissions standards. The utility has been granted a delay in complying with the air quality regulations until the department of the environment reaches a final decision on its request to postpone the compliance deadline for certain power stations. However, if a decision is made that Eskom has to comply immediately it would have to shut down 16,000MW of generation capacity now (about 40% of Eskom’s total generation capacity from coal) and up to 30,000MW (75% of total capacity) after March 2025.
According to the IRP “a balance will have to be found between energy security, the adverse health effects of poor air quality and the economic cost associated with these plants shutting down”.
In the scenarios that assume no EAF improvement to 2030, South Africa continues to suffer electricity supply deficits. Adequate electricity supply would be achieved by 2030 only if there is a quick rollout of gas-to-energy projects or Eskom’s generation recovery plan is successful and results in an EAF of about 70% by the end of the decade.
The plan up to 2030 includes 1,400MW of new generation capacity from coal (from Kusile units 5 and 6), 4,200MW of gas power from the emergency power procurement round (Karpowership) as well as power that will come from other government-backed independent power procurement rounds for gas-to-power projects. In December the DMRE launched a bidding round for 2,000MW of gas power.
The plan makes no provision for new nuclear or hydro power to be added by 2030 but assumes about 3,600MW and 4,500MW of capacity will be added from solar and wind respectively. In addition, it estimates that the private sector will add about 6,300MW of generation capacity for own use and 3,700MW of battery storage will be rolled out.
The long-term scenarios, up to 2050, consider several pathways such as adding up to 14,500MW of new nuclear power or adding about 166,000MW of new capacity from wind, solar, gas and battery storage. One scenario shows new coal capacity of 5,000MW developed using clean coal technologies by 2040.
The reviews for the period to 2030 and the period to 2050 both make the case for delaying the decommissioning of coal-fired power stations.
The delayed shutdown plan assumes about 13,000MW of coal-fired power capacity will be decommissioned by 2034 instead of about 15,000MW; that there will be no decommissioning between 2035 and 2045; and that thereafter another 10,000MW will be shut down up to 2050. This would result in generation capacity from existing coal-power stations of about 18,000MW by 2050 against the previous plan of 10,000MW.
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