Retail tycoon Christo Wiese says the biggest danger he sees to the ability of an ANC-dominated government of national unity (GNU) to revive the economy and turn the country around is ideology.
“My biggest criticism of the ANC is its record of keeping on with the wrong ideology even though it has been shown time after time around the world not to work.”
However, he sees signs that this be be changing in former trade, industry & competition minister Ebrahim Patel’s proposed exemptions to the Companies Act shortly before retiring, “which I hope will help to cure our problems in Transnet and the ports, which is critically important to any chance of a turnaround”.
The ANC's attitude to cadre deployment will also need to change, he says.
“I'm an outspoken opponent of cadre deployment. I have nothing against employing a person who has a particular political orientation, but that should not stop you ensuring they have the right skills.”
One of the “terrible blunders” of the ANC has been to put “so many hugely incompetent people” into key positions for so long regardless of the devastating consequences.
“That is something I hope a coalition government will cure to a large extent. Merit must always be the priority. Appointments on any other basis are unforgivable.”
Referring to the DA’s controversial demand that it have a direct say in the appointment of directors-general, he says the political affiliation of a DG shouldn't matter as long as he or she has the necessary skills for the job.
“The one thing I never understood is Cyril Ramaphosa and Trevor Manuel were the authors of the National Development Plan (drafted in 2012). In that plan they said one of the first requirements for this country to do well is that the civil service should be professionalised. It's in the plan. The ANC accepted that plan, and then did the direct opposite.”
None of this detracts from his “optimism” that the ANC will act in good faith when it comes to the GNU.
Nor is he concerned that the ANC leadership still talks about the national democratic revolution (NDR).
“I'm not sure I know what that means. And what's worse is that I'm not sure they know what it means.”
Assuming it means centralised control of everything, including the economy, then “clearly that is the wrong ideology. You don ’t have to be a rocket scientist to come to that conclusion.”
He hopes the GNU will help change their beliefs about this and much else.
“We all know that the people participating in this GNU initiative come from different ideological premises. Part of the purpose of this coalition government I hope is to try to persuade those within the coalition on a give and take basis to do what is best for the country.”
A mark of his optimism is the decision of his industrial holding company Invicta to start looking at investment opportunities in South Africa again. Invicta generates more than 60% of its net profit offshore after expanding its operations outside South Africa in response to shrinking industries inside the country.
Wiese says he hopes that with the GNU there will be positive growth in the mining, construction and agricultural sectors Invicta wants to supply.
Isn’t this naïve, for instance in the case of the mining sector where the same minister responsible for collapsing it is expected to remain in charge?
Surely any person with half a brain has to say: what went wrong and how do we put it right?
— Christo Wiese
“It depends on to what extent the same unproductive policies will be followed. I would have hoped that lessons had been learned. We all know that South Africa was one of the leading mining economies in the world and has dropped to the bottom of the pile. Surely any person with half a brain has to say, ‘What went wrong and how do we put it right?’”
In assessing the chances of the as yet unannounced GNU, it would be wrong to focus “too narrowly” on specific ministers, he says. “We need to take a wider view”.
“Let's say Gwede Mantashe is responsible for the terrible performance of our mining industry. There are also other factors that played a role. So it's more complicated than saying person A will be better than person B, or person B is a total disaster.”
It will take more than the record of one or other minister to knock his optimism about the chances of a South African revival under the GNU, he says.
“Who of us in the late 1980s would have believed that FW de Klerk would get up on February 2 1990 and change South Africa beyond recognition?”
De Klerk was prepared to go against his party. Does he see anyone of comparable courage leading the ANC?
“Ramaphosa has been heavily criticised, but you've got to look at the position in which he finds himself, bearing in mind that his two predecessors were both recalled. Politics remains the art of the possible. You can only do what you can do. But I am very convinced that if Ramaphosa was not there at this point in time, this attempt, which hopefully will succeed, of forming a GNU would not have got off the ground.”
He says the time has come for the president to grasp the nettle, “but also for all of us to stop this negativity”.
Others might call it realism. There was a feeling at the time that Wiese could have done with a lot more of it when at the height of state capture he went on a road show with then finance minister Pravin Gordhan to convince ratings agencies and international fund managers that South Africa was a good investment destination.
The then chair of AngloGold, Sipho Pityana, who was leading the Save South Africa campaign, accused him of sacrificing his credibility by giving the investment community misleading assurances.
“I'm sure people will have said that, but when many people packed for Perth I said I'm not moving anywhere.”
There were suggestions that the merger and planned merger of his Pepkor and Shoprite retail giants with German-listed Steinhoff was part of a strategy to transfer his assets out of politically risky South Africa.
That was “hogwash”, says 82-year-old Wiese.
“Whenever there was an opportunity in South Africa we invested. Now that the climate is changing and opportunities will start presenting themselves again, we hope, we'll be out there.”
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