Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election is viewed as a significant setback for global climate action, casting a shadow over the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) due to start tomorrow.
“Frankly, you could argue that the election results have devastated COP29's prospects before it even began,” said Francois Engelbrecht, head of the Global Change Institute at Wits University. “It has dealt a severe blow to the summit's ambitions.”
The conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, aims to advance global climate initiatives, particularly focusing on climate finance and emissions reduction targets.
As the world approaches the crucial 2025 global stocktake of climate goals, the conference provides one of the last opportunities for nations to commit to ambitious, revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which outline each country’s plans to curb emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
Engelbrecht said the most pressing agenda item at COP29 was the need for a clear path to phasing out emissions. However, Trump’s return to power could have serious repercussions on negotiations.
He has already indicated intentions to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, as he did during his first term.
Though the president-elect has yet to release an official statement on climate since his election, his history and recent campaign rhetoric make his stance clear: climate change is not a priority.
One campaign slogan, “Drill, baby, drill,” signified his commitment to increasing fossil fuel production. He has already indicated intentions to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, as he did during his first term. The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
“At COP29, the Biden administration was expected to announce that they would reduce their emissions by 65% by 2030, relative to 2005-levels,” Engelbrecht said. “There was hope that the US would set an example and galvanise other nations, including the world's largest emitter, China, into action.”
With Trump back in office, the US may also withdraw from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), according to internal discussions among his advisers. Such a move could severely destabilise international climate negotiations.
The US’s erratic climate policy undermines its ability to lead and influence global environmental action. “If you want to make the transition to renewable energy forms, then you need the world's largest economies to lead the way, and to fund and drive most of the transition,” Engelbrecht said.
The ripple effects are significant. “For instance, the World Bank plays a crucial role in financing renewable energy projects, but the US is its largest shareholder.”
Despite the gloom, some see potential opportunities. The EU and China could rise as climate leaders in the absence of US influence. “It will be a real test to see if these blocs can fill the leadership and financial void,” he said.
Another critical topic at COP29 is climate finance — securing funds to help developing countries such as South Africa transition to sustainable energy sources.
In his opening remarks at the national stakeholder consultations for COP29, the minister of environment, forestry and fisheries, Dion George, underscored the critical need for increased financing and capacity-building support. “Access to finance must be scaled up to offer predictable funding that is fit for purpose,” he said.
Many countries still lack these crucial plans, and one of the objectives of this COP is to provide them with technical assistance and secure commitments to help draft their NAPs
South Africa has already received a R8.5bn loan to support its transition. Engelbrecht acknowledged the potential for further funding, but cautioned that would be “in a world where the Paris Agreement and negotiations are robust. In a world where everything is collapsing due to the absence of the US, nothing may come of this”.
A third important point on the agenda is the national adaptation plans (NAPs), which all countries are required to submit by 2025.
“Many countries still lack these crucial plans, and one of the objectives of this COP is to provide them with technical assistance and secure commitments to help draft their NAPs,” Engelbrecht said.
He noted that while funding often focused on renewable energy infrastructure and phasing out coal, “some of that funding must also support major climate adaptation projects”.
The Loss and Damage Fund, established at COP28, is once again on the agenda. Designed to compensate countries facing severe climate impacts and struggling to transition quickly enough, the fund is yet to receive any financial contributions. This year, there is hope that real funding will be secured to make it functional.
Engelbrecht said it would be interesting to see how countries work around the absence of the US, which could pose a challenge to mobilising these essential resources.
