US friends and foes brace for Trump's ‘America first’ era

Less than 24 hours after US President Donald Trump was sworn into office on Monday, new secretary of state Marco Rubio met his foreign minister counterparts from America’s closest allies in the Indo-Pacific — the so-called “Quad” with Australia, India and Japan.

For all the early focus on efforts to end the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, the Trump administration will have surprised few by focusing so early on countries key to America’s confrontation with China. Already, though, there are signs of just how different this new era may be. America’s partners and adversaries both appear to be scrambling to adapt to that new reality.

In his inaugural address, Trump announced what he called a new “golden age” in which the US would build its military strength and look to expand its territory — the latter something no US president has pledged in more than a century. But he did not refer to allies, friends or partners once, except in reference to putting “America first” in all interactions.

Speaking to State Department personnel this week, Rubio told them that US foreign policy would be “centred on one thing, and that is the advancement of our national interest ... Anything that makes us stronger or safer or more prosperous — that will be our mission.”

As former British foreign secretary David Miliband told a UK broadcaster: “Trump was elected as a disrupter. The message is: 'Buckle up'. They don't buy the argument that America benefits from its global stabilising role. One should respect the electoral mandate that he has, but also understand that he's not kidding.”

Japanese foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya, who met Rubio on Tuesday, was an early engager with that rhetoric, saying he had stressed Japan had been the largest foreign investor in the US for the last five years and was also now spending much more on defence, just as Trump demanded.

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte echoed that on Thursday, saying Trump was “right” to demand US allies do more on defence. As a group, the Quad ministers stressed that within the region they “strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion”.

That appeared to be a veiled reference to Taiwan, which China has repeatedly expressed its determination to “reunify” with the mainland and which US military officials say Beijing may be ready to invade as soon as 2027. Several of Trump’s Pentagon appointments — including Elbridge Colby, incoming under-secretary of defence for policy — have argued that the US must prioritise the rising threat from China, if necessary by drawing resources away from Europe in general and Ukraine in particular.

Questions on Europe, Ukraine

For his part, Trump has presented his determination to end current wars as a sign of his efforts to avoid a wider global conflict. “I will end the war in Ukraine, I will stop the chaos in the Middle East and I will prevent World War 3 from happening — and you have no idea how close we are,” he told a pre-inauguration rally.

So far, that effort does seem to have helped win the start of hostage releases under the Gaza ceasefire deal, as well as a commitment from Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen not to attack vessels not linked to Israel passing through nearby waters.

Writing on his Truth social media platform late on Wednesday, Trump demanded Russian President Vladimir Putin stop the “ridiculous war” in Ukraine or face increased sanctions, taxes and tariffs.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week that he believed US troops must be part of any post-war peacekeeping mission in his country.

“Even if some European friends think it can be, it can't be. Nobody will risk without the United States,” he said.

Still, both Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron told the gathering that Europe needed to do much more in its own defence.

Unanswered questions

But the bottom line is that most European nations remain well short of the 5% commitment of GDP towards defence Trump now says he wants — so far only Lithuania and Poland have pledged to reach that level, but many other allies lag far behind.

Just as important as how Trump deals with allies, however, is how his relationship develops with potential foes.

He has threatened new 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, a move linked directly to allegations that China has been pushing the highly addictive drug fentanyl into the US and its neighbours, something Beijing denies.

Those threatened tariffs, however, are considerably lower than the 60% Trump mooted during his election campaign. Having declined Trump’s invitation to attend the inauguration — something that might have made him look more like a supplicant than he might have wished, Chinese President Xi Jinping held what appeared to be a friendly call with Trump on the Friday before he entered office, congratulating him on his win and discussing trade and the US ban on Chinese social media platform TikTok.

Trump credits TikTok with helping him win votes among young people and has pledged to overturn the Biden administration’s ban. TikTok’s Singapore-born CEO Shou Zi Chew attended the inauguration under the rotunda of the Capitol, seated next to Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee for director of national intelligence.

That will probably already have unsettled some US allies, many of whom regard TikTok as a state-controlled tool of Chinese influence also used by Russia, and are unsettled by the appointment of Gabbard.

The former congresswoman from Hawaii and US army reservist has yet to receive senatorial approval, but had previously met and largely endorsed ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and also repeated Kremlin talking points, particularly on Ukraine. America’s potential foes are also taking stock. Putin and Xi held a video conference shortly after the US inauguration ceremony, almost certainly to discuss how they will handle Trump’s new transactional approach.

Trump and his administration will be looking for ways to split China, Russia, North Korea and Iran and reduce their mutual co-operation. But this group, termed the new “axis of resistance” or “upheaval”, will be hoping America’s alliances that have helped maintain Western dominance since 1945 will unravel first.

Reuters