Despite a spell of harsh weather, crop production in South Africa has largely outperformed previous projections and is expected to remain healthy.
This is according to the 2024-25 summer forecast released by the South African Grain Information Service (Sagis), which noted that the country had seen considerable flooding in many areas and some of the worst regional drought on record towards the end of last year.
The commercial maize crop has been set at 14.664Mt, 0.72% or 105,200t more than the previous forecast of 14.559Mt, with an expected yield of 5.65t/ha for maize.
“The estimated maize crop is 14.12% or 1.814Mt larger than the 2024 crop. The three main maize-producing areas, namely the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West provinces, are expected to produce 81% of the 2025 crop,” Sagis said.
The production forecast of white maize is 7.757Mt, which is 0.80% or 61,500t more than the 7.695Mt of the previous forecast. The area estimate for white maize is 1.6-million hectares, and the expected yield is 4.85t/ha. In the case of yellow maize, the production forecast is 6.907Mt, which is 0.64% or 43,700t more than the 6.863Mt of the previous forecast. The area estimate for yellow maize is 997,000ha, and the yield is 6.93t/ha.
Conversely, the production forecast for sunflower seed is 742,800t, which is 3.6% or 27,700t less than the previous forecast of 770,500. The area estimate for sunflower seed is 555,700ha, while the expected yield is 1.34t/ha.
The production forecast for soybeans decreased by 2.47% or 58,950t from 2.390Mt to 2.331Mt. The estimated area planted to soybeans is 1.151-million hectares, with an expected yield of 2.03t/ha. The expected groundnut crop has been set at 64,595t, which is 3.49% or 2,334t less than the previous forecast of 66,929t. For groundnuts, the area estimate is 48,125ha, with an expected yield of 1.34t/ha.
The production forecast for sorghum was 137,970t, which is 0.39% or 535t more than the 137,435t of the previous forecast. Sorghum is at 41,150ha, and the expected yield is 3.35t/ha. The production forecast for dry beans decreased by 10.72% or 8,467t, from 79,007t to 70,540t. The area estimate of dry beans is 45,620ha, with an expected yield of 1.55t/ha.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at AgBiz, said the outlook for 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds remains broadly positive, with production at 18Mt, or 16% from the previous season. “This comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. While some regions planted late by roughly a month, the crop benefited from the excellent rains in March when it was in the pollination stages.”
Sihlobo said that though the weather had been harsh over the past few weeks, he was optimistic South Africa would have a recovery season. The US department of agriculture forecasts South Africa's 2024-25 commercial maize production at 15.3Mt, up 20% from last season.
Yield per hectare for Mpumalanga was based on results provided by the Agricultural Research Council. The objective results for the Free State and North West will be available later this month.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.