Minister of electricity & energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says South Africa’s annualised energy availability factor (EAF) has passed the 60% mark and will reach 70% by the end of the year.
“Eskom is now gearing to improve the energy availability factor to above 70% by the end of the financial year. It is this progress that we seek to consolidate in the 2025/26 financial year.”
EAF refers to the duration for which a power plant is available to generate power relative to its maximum potential output. The EAF for the first 19 weeks of 2023 was six percentage points lower, at 52.56%, than the 58.79% for the same period in 2022.
Ramokgopa tabled his 2025 budget vote in parliament on Thursday. He credited the EAF progress to the Energy Action Plan, which is supported by Eskom, the private sector and the National Energy Crisis Committee.
He also announced that in furtherance of the country's ambitious drive to build 14,000km of new power lines by 2032, the request for qualification was scheduled to be issued this month and a request for proposals by November.
“The transmission development plan anticipates more than 14,000km of new lines to be built by 2032,” he said. “In April this year, the department published draft regulations to support the entry of private capital through the independent transmission projects procurement programme.”
Ramokgopa said that over the medium-term expenditure framework, the government has committed just over R13bn to the integrated national electrification programme to achieve universal access by 2030. But he added that the fiscus would not be able to carry the cost on its own.
“The department is working with the National Treasury and our development finance partners to design a new blended financing approach. The goal is to use the R13bn allocation to unlock additional capital through the debt markets and concessional funding windows.”
He said the department was working closely with the trade, industry & competition department to develop a localisation and socioeconomic maximisation model for the energy sector, covering generation, transmission, distribution and associated infrastructure.
The deputy minister of electricity & energy, Samantha Graham-Maré, said transmission, as the circulatory system of the generation system’s engine, had been under tremendous strain for some time.
“We are fixing that, with action, not aspiration,” she said. “The Electricity Regulation Amendment [ERA] Act has brought key provisions into effect, enabling open access to the grid, multimarket structures and competitive electricity trading.”
The National Transmission Company of South Africa's (NTCSA's) legal formalisation in April allowed the new entity to operate independently of Eskom and unlock a transparent, rules-based grid environment for transmission, Graham-Maré said.
With open access to the grid, more independent power producers will be able to participate and, more importantly, the increased capacity created by a robust transmission ecosystem will mean that South Africa will be able to unleash the full potential of renewables, cutting emissions while improving reliability
— Vincenzia Leitich, executive for energy and infrastructure at Standard Bank
To scale up new infrastructure, the department has launched the independent transmission project's procurement programme that will “target grid buildout in high-congestion corridors, crowd in private capital and ensure that transmission infrastructure keeps pace with our generation ambitions”.
The Treasury this week released a quarterly update on the progress of Operation Vulindlela, which said the NTCSA had submitted its application for a market operator licence to the National Energy Regulator (Nersa) in terms of the new ERA Act, and the first projects from bid window 5 had reached commercial operation.
“The Rietkloof and Brandvalley projects will together provide 288MW of new generation capacity, helping to alleviate the supply shortfall. Five preferred bidders with a total capacity of 616MW have been announced for the third round of the battery storage procurement programme, with projects expected to reach commercial operation by January 2028.”
Nersa also approved the national wheeling framework in March, providing standardised rules for third-party wheeling across the network, which will support non-discriminatory, open access to the electricity network to enable competition and lower electricity prices.
“A ministerial determination was issued on March 28 mandating the procurement of 1,164km of 400kV transmission power lines and associated infrastructure, laying the groundwork for private investment in transmission infrastructure.
“The draft electricity transmission infrastructure regulations were published for public comment in April, paving the way for the department of electricity & energy to issue a request for proposals for the first phase of independent transmission projects in November.”
Vincenzia Leitich, executive for energy and infrastructure at Standard Bank, said the lack of transmission was not just a technical hurdle but “the vital lever that is needed to unlock real energy transformation”.
“With open access to the grid, more independent power producers will be able to participate and, more importantly, the increased capacity created by a robust transmission ecosystem will mean that South Africa will be able to unleash the full potential of renewables, cutting emissions while improving reliability.”
Leitich said she was encouraged that the country was “finally” on the path towards enhanced transmission capacity. The establishment of the NTCSA, to be spun off from Eskom, was a significant early milestone.
“This unbundling will enable open and transparent access to the grid for public and private generators. It will also pave the way for the trading of electricity through market platforms and wheeling arrangements, creating the foundation for a more dynamic and competitive power sector.”
The NTCSA and the proposed independent transmission projects programme create a compelling case for private sector participation, not just in generation but also in grid infrastructure, Leitich said.
She said the initial phase to 2029 targets a more realistic 5,043km of power lines, but with only 286km expected to be completed in 2025, the gap between ambition and delivery remains “immense”.
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