Exporters in the Western Cape believe the impact of US tariffs on employment in South Africa has been understated — at 30,000. They fear that as many as 100,000 people could lose their jobs.
“We always know that question [of tariffs] is going to come up. Unfortunately, it’s not good at all. There is an impact, already, and we are feeling it,” Terry Gale, the chairperson of Exporters Western Cape, told Business Times in an interview.
“When you talk about towns like Citrusdal, their main citrus market is America. The wine industry has had its harvest; now the wine should be starting to be exported. . The impact is ... I don’t even want to think about the impact, especially on employment. I reckon it’s not going to be 30,000, it’s going to be more like 100,000 jobs lost.
“The South African economy cannot afford to lose one job! It’s only going to get worse if we don’t get these tariffs resolved. It’s not easy to replace America. The EU is a good market, but we really are almost saturated in that market.”
US President Donald Trump announced a raft of “reciprocal” tariffs on South Africa in April, but later suspended them for 90 days. After South Africa failed to secure a trade deal framework, the 30% tariffs kicked in this month, extending the trade and diplomatic rift between Washington and Pretoria.
Gale said while the US was not as large a trade partner for South Africa as the EU or China, there will be specific categories of exports that will be vulnerable to the tariffs, including citrus, wine, and manufactured goods.
To get another market, even China, which is not sitting there waiting for us, is difficult. Japan is a good market of 100-million people and a wealthy market, but it’s a challenge with a 50- to 60-day transit time. When it comes to fruit, a lot of it is time sensitive
— Terry Gale, chairperson of Exporters Western Cape
He cautioned that seeking alternative markets will not be a simple panacea for exporters that will lose the US market, as global trade fragmentation is expected to worsen already considerable port pressure in other global regions.
Western Cape exporters have managed to broker deals for alternative markets to soften the blow of the tariffs, such as sending apples to the Philippines in the far east, Gale said.
He reiterated that the US has geographical and logistics advantages that are hard to replace for exporters looking for alternative markets. “When you look at citrus, and things like that, the other markets that we export to, your transit time is so much longer, and a lot of the cargo doesn’t go direct.
“For argument’s sake, if you’re looking at Australia and a lot of these export markets in the Far East, it’s transshipped. So the minute goods are transshipped, if you look at Singapore, which is a very big transshipment hub but, because it’s so good and popular, there is heavy congestion there. So, your container can get into Singapore, but that doesn’t mean, automatically, that a vessel discharges the container today, and tomorrow it’s going to be loaded on the next vessel. It could be delayed for weeks.”
Gale said engagements with his clients show that pressure was building at major ports and transshipment hubs around the world, as other countries also find ways to contend with Trump tariffs. “I’m, at the moment, [dealing] with some of my clients who are getting imports from the Far East, from China. And you can’t believe it. We are looking at 60 days in terms of transit times. Compared to 18 days, you know? When you’re tripping from South Africa to America, it doesn’t go via any other port. It’s direct.
“To get another market, even China, which is not sitting there waiting for us, is difficult. Japan is a good market of 100-million people and a wealthy market, but it’s a challenge with a 50- to 60-day transit time. When it comes to fruit, a lot of it is time sensitive.”
During a briefing this week, international relations & cooperation minister Ronald Lamola said South Africa and the US continue to engage at the highest levels on the tariff impasse. He said the bilateral relationship between the two remained resilient as discussions continued.
“These engagements are ongoing, and we will be hosting a US congressional staff delegation from the house foreign affairs committee. I also had engagements with Mr [Massad] Boulos, president [Donald] Trump’s advisor on the African continent,” he said.
Dawie de Villiers, chair of the South African Rooibos Council, said over the past decade the local rooibos industry had worked to broaden its international footprint. “Today, Rooibos is exported to more than 30 countries, with Japan and Europe among its largest markets. While the US tariff poses a challenge, the industry’s diversification strategy means it is not overly reliant on one market,” he said.
De Villiers said the US accounts for about 5% of South Africa’s annual Rooibos exports, equating to around 400,000kg in 2024.
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