Anil Agarwal, the Indian billionaire with a penchant for South African wines, was never going to be a passive Anglo investor. For one, there's no economic benefit to his investment as his 20% stake was bought using convertible bonds, which only mature in three years. It is only at that point that he'll be able to take ownership of those shares either by settling in cash or choosing to use those shares to repay the bonds. This was always a strategic play, a chess move that seemed a vote against Mark Cutifani's strategy of shrinking the one-time giant to focusing on three minerals.
Given that Agarwal's plan to merge his resources empire with Anglo was rejected last year, clearly his thoughts around the Oppenheimer-founded miner wasn't about slimming it down. What the market has been waiting for since his emergence as Anglo's biggest shareholder has been his thoughts on the company, whose shares have rallied 167% over the past two years. Speaking to the Financial Times on Friday, the market got its first sense of his views on its long-term future, and they don't involve a break-up. Instead, he feels the miner should invest "more money" into its South African operations. This is sure to spook international investors that have long been concerned by the country's volatile political climate. Tomorrow's share moves may prove to be interesting.
Agarwal told the paper that the miner should rather "cherish" its local assets, which include Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore. "I like the structure as it is at this point in time," he said.
The Public Investment Corporation, now the second-biggest shareholder in Anglo with more than a 14% stake, shares a similar view. Their combined stake surely now puts paid to any further asset sales that Anglo's executive may have on the table. After the recovery of commodity prices over the past year - not so much a recovery but a stabilisation to a slightly upward tick - Anglo has said the asset sales are not as urgent a matter, though it has recommitted itself to such plans.
It seems Agarwal and the PIC have a strategic alliance - planned or not - and one that puts paid to not only the board's current plans but also analyst calls for the mining juggernaut to be split into two companies: one focused on South Africa and the other on its international assets.
With political uncertainty at its peak, confidence levels plummeting to depths last seen in the '80s and growth levels where they are at the moment, Agarwal's statements are quite a positive development. A vote of confidence where none seems to exist.
It's understandable that South African corporations that now have a shareholder registry full of international investors are being pushed to look outside not only this country's borders but those of the continent itself. That whole "Africa Rising" narrative has long lost favour with international markets.
Politics in South Africa do make for some rather difficult reading at the moment, with shots being fired as contestation heats up in these times of economic fragility.
Anglo, much like the rand, is something of a share price representing the South African story. Its shift away from it, with the country only representing 7% of its revenue but 76% of its employees, has helped cement the idea that putting capital into this ground has become too risky. Retailers and property stocks have all followed suit, predominantly choosing the developed markets of Europe as an escape from South African risk. Their excursions have seemed rather rushed and, given the report cards - such as Brait's which this week had to value its UK investment in New Look at zero - an expensive exercise.
Corporates that aggressively seek to diversify their businesses outside South Africa may be better rewarded by the stock markets, but is this not the problem with short-termism? Opportunity still exists in South Africa, as murky as the crystal ball may be. Bad politics can give way to better politics, especially with an improved economic outlook. That there's such heightened political contestation is a strength. Now to focus on who the victors are and whether there's stomach for the necessary clean-up.
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