RON DERBY: Prudence, not populism, must rule in manifesto season

If you are searching for inspired reading, the last place you should look is in the manifesto of a political party. The rise of nationalism, and with it the opportunists seeking to benefit from the emotions that are naturally stoked by issues such as immigration and security, have placed us all in a rather precarious position. It's a pretty volatile situation in an era when the humdrum that was once the politics of the day has been disrupted by the influence of social media, and policy uncertainty is stoked by rumblings of influencers from within governing parties themselves. You'd think it would be in the interest of a senior party member to ensure some sense of stability.

Let's take the ill-considered views of the ANC's Mzwandile Masina, who this week tweeted about the "nationalisation" of the Reserve Bank. It's noise that excites the ultrarevolutionaries in the party, although the Bank's independence and its mandate are constitutionally protected.

The ANC
government
has hired all
the public
servants it can

White monopoly capital, represented in the case of comrades such as Masina by the few private shareholders in the Bank, has never had the ability to sway its monetary policy in whatever way it chooses. But here he is, a supposed senior member of the party, using his Twitter celebrity to criticise the Bank's leadership for quite simply sticking to its mandate. I guess there's more political capital to be gained by spouting his ill-considered views on a social media stage than by trying to win his ill-informed argument within party structures.

I'm not picking on Masina alone; it's the practice of all manner of politicians across the globe to be more concerned about their prospects than about party or country. Our Ekurhuleni mayor is doing pretty much what men such as Boris Johnson did in the UK as they drummed home the "Leave EU" narrative. (Now that the UK has indeed chosen that path, it's quite interesting to note that he has shied away from the challenge of leading the exit, and instead sits in the peanut gallery, a populist trait.)

With political theatre as disrupted as it has been over the past decade, important policy matters such as a central bank's independence or the economic future of an island nation are dissected as quickly as Naas Botha analyses the match after a Blue Bulls loss.

I took the time to read through the governing party's manifesto this week, as I will no doubt have to do with those of the other major parties over the coming weeks. In it, there are the focus areas one would expect from a country that has a working population of 16-million v 17.5-million social grant dependents. The policy options to deal with what clearly is an unsustainable situation are made all the more stark by depressed economic conditions and a decade of a scandal-ridden administration that dented business and consumer confidence.

In a still-precarious position, there's simply no room for the ANC - or, I'd add, any party looking to lead after this year's polls - to veer far off a script that speaks of fiscal prudence. The party has blown the surplus position it had more than a decade ago; it has hired all the public servants it can hire and doled out all the political favours it possibly can. On that last one, we can only hope, right?

The state is hamstrung, no matter its custodian. The ANC's investigation into prescribing assets for financial institutions, and its pronouncements on monetary policy, are perhaps the surest signs of this desperate state. But at least there are no nationalisation talks or talks of an outright fire sale of state assets, both of which would tell a tale of surrender to the thrills of populism.

It will be interesting see what the manifestos still to come will offer as solutions to what's now a stale tale of woe. And thereafter we'll have to wait for the "Naas Botha" commentary that follows to drum up uncertainty. A state, I am starting to believe, that is inescapable for any functional democracy.