OpinionPREMIUM

HILARY JOFFE: Hopeful signals and some less so in cabinet picks

In theory, acceleration shouldn't be that hard, given that the economy is barely motoring at all

Tito Mboweni, South Africa's finance minister, right, signs a document during a swearing-in ceremony in Pretoria, South Africa on May 30 2019.  Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg
Tito Mboweni, South Africa's finance minister, right, signs a document during a swearing-in ceremony in Pretoria, South Africa on May 30 2019. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

On Wednesday evening, when he at last revealed his new cabinet, President Cyril Ramaphosa began by underlining the clear mandate his administration had to accelerate inclusive economic growth.

In theory, acceleration shouldn't be that hard, given that the economy is barely motoring at all. The Reserve Bank and ratings agency S&P have cut their growth forecasts for this year to just 1%, and even that may prove too high, with the latest data indicating a negative first quarter.

In practice, it will depend on whether Ramaphosa's new administration does indeed have the coherence and competence he promises, and whether the 28 ministers and 34 deputy ministers appointed can and will focus on delivering growth and jobs.

It may be easy enough to mollify markets temporarily with a couple of familiar economic faces - and the rand's uptick suggests Ramaphosa achieved that. But if creating a climate for the kind of investment that will accelerate inclusive growth is the criterion, markets should scrutinise the cabinet mix through a much wider lens - watching not just the usual suspects in finance or public enterprises, but also the ministers charged with sorting the skills crisis or with making sectors such as agriculture or infrastructure investible.

Market players were fixated on the size of the cabinet, and though the president couldn't deliver the hoped-for lean and mean 25-member team, 28 ministers was a start (leaving aside the bloated list of deputies he evidently had to concede to).

Resolutely keeping incumbents Tito Mboweni and Pravin Gordhan in their posts, in the face of populist attack, was also a good signal. So, too, was the reappointment of the mining minister the industry wanted to keep, Gwede Mantashe, whose power has been boosted, as it were, with the crucial energy portfolio.

At the new trade & industry super-ministry, organised labour and the left got their way, while business at least has the devil it knows in trade & industry minister Ebrahim Patel, who can now pursue his desire to drive industrial policy directly, as well as through the new and sweeping powers of his amended competition legislation.

Perhaps surprise public works & infrastructure minister Patricia de Lille will unblock the constraints holding back the construction industry. And Thoko Didiza at the consolidated land & agriculture ministry could boost SA's farming landscape.

Yet there is still a bunch of superfluous departments, small business among them, and some disturbing signals, economically speaking. Skills, crucially, is one: incumbents Angie Motshekga and Blade Nzimande, who have been retained at basic and higher education, have hardly covered themselves in glory. Nor is it clear whether new home affairs minister Aaron Motsoaledi is private-sector friendly enough to unlock the skills imports needed.

There are still too many unimpressive old faces. But equally there are also some bright new ones, with the potential to shine. It will take time for newly configured departments to bed down, and the contestation may be fierce. But if even some of Ramaphosa's ministers can start to shake up the sclerotic machinery of government, and repair the damage done, growth should edge up.

• Joffe is a communications consultant and freelance journalist

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