SA's business community can be very pessimistic, as is evident in its confidence levels, which are now comparable with what they were at the height of PW Botha's intransigence.
The pessimism results from exasperation at the snail's pace of reform, which we all understood at the very beginning would be a long and arduous process, especially as the governing party faces challenges in achieving greater unity of purpose.
It's this lack of confidence over the past few years that has taken shareholders on journeys into developed markets that have produced some disastrous results. While report cards indicate firms should be cooling off on these grandiose plans, still they continue, with news last week that Growthpoint is looking to get into the UK property market despite what's likely to be a prolonged period of Brexit uncertainty.
This escapism has sadly resulted in some of our larger corporations losing sight of opportunities here in Africa. The biggest one in the medium to long term must be the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
It's an agreement to which corporate SA hasn't paid much attention. But its potential to transform the economy is in the same league as the discovery of gold was.
The most industrialised countries in Africa will reap the greatest benefits from the creation of a free-trade area across more than 50 nations. Among them is Morocco, which recently rejoined the African Union after a 30-year absence.
The free-trade agreement, which SA and Nigeria were among the last to sign, should on the face of it at least mean increased intra-regional trade. In years to come, markets that have been closed off, such as Ethiopia - an absolute gold mine - will be unlocked.
The AfCFTA will also open up funding channels to improve infrastructure between regions - there's no better incentive.
Now, just for clarity, a free-trade deal means trade is left to its natural course, without tariffs, quotas or other restrictions. If you consider that the agreement covers 54 states and creates a market of some 1.3-billion people, which is expected to grow to 2.5-billion by 2050, it's obviously a market in which any one of our business titans, not to mention multinationals, needs a parking space.
Given the uneven industrial development across Africa, three countries are in a much better position than the rest to make the most of this eventual market: Egypt, Morocco and SA.
How will a country such as Malawi, for example, with its industrial strength in sectors such as textiles, be able to compete? It's virtually impossible, even if Malawi was suddenly blessed with expert policymakers determined to build an industrial base.
Multinationals looking for an entry into the African market can't ignore the demographic attractions of the AfCFTA, which we know is some years from being fully implemented.
And if you are a manufacturer in, say, China, where best to plant your flag than in one of the continent's more industrialised regions or countries?
It makes perfect sense to do so, and ensure your products are classified as locally made and can therefore be exported to a huge, borderless market.
SA, Morocco and, to a lesser extent perhaps, Egypt could find themselves becoming the Germany or the France in this market. Without tariffs to protect their local industries, most of our neighbours will simply buckle under the pressure of competition.
It will be interesting to see the rivalry between SA and Morocco in the motoring sector; Renault has a base in the North African country, and SA has all the German manufacturers, as well as Ford.
Nigeria was last to the party to sign the agreements, perhaps amid wariness over its own industrial strength.
As this free-trade agreement develops and countries such as Ethiopia eventually join in, how will the power dynamics play out? What will become of migration patterns as SA's corporate muscle is flexed?
The AfCFTA is much bigger than some of us might have thought, and corporate SA has missed a trick. I don't think PepsiCo's decision to buy Pioneer Foods is a play for a 55-million customer base - the beverage giant sees the bigger opportunity.
South African corporations feeling as gloomy as they did in the '80s are sure to be believers once again.
The first 50 years of African freedom was certainly about establishing a political governance structure. The next half-century will be about economic competition under this free-trade deal.
Its implementation will not be seamless or quick, but the AfCFTA is on its way.
• Derby hosts Power Business on Power FM
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