A business-class problem, not an economy-class one. That was one description this week of the coronavirus in SA, where so far most of those infected have been affluent folk returning from skiing in Europe. No doubt it will get worse, possibly a lot worse in a country with a high rate of HIV, even though SA's youthful demographic may help to keep the mortality rate lower than in, say, elderly Italy. At least for now the weather is in our favour and we are in a bit of a bubble, insulated from the panic that has gripped the world.
There are big questions about whether SA's dysfunctional health-care facilities are up to the task. At least for now, though, the government's response has been swifter, more sensible and more private sector-friendly than usual and its communications clearer than those of many global counterparts.
Is it too much to hope that the crisis might prompt some action?
But the contagion SA has to fear is at least as much about the economic and financial fallout from the crisis as it is about the virus itself. We are about to find out the true cost of the poor policy choices of the past decade. They have left SA's macroeconomic policymakers with minimal firepower in the face of an unprecedented global economic crisis, one whose shape and extent we can at this stage only guess.
It has already blown last month's budget out of the water. The budget assumed the economy would grow by 0.9% this year and 1.3% next year. Now, with Covid-19 driving global growth forecasts sharply down, even the most optimistic economists see SA's growth this year at no more than 0.4%. The pessimists are at 0% or less.
That means lower revenues and - even if the government manages to reach agreement with the public sector unions on wage curbs - much higher deficit and public debt ratios. Economists are talking deficits of 8%-9% - higher than the fiscal mess at the end of apartheid, and higher even than the level in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Then, SA went into the crisis with a full fiscal tool kit. The economy and tax collections had been booming and the government was running a small fiscal surplus. It had cut its debt - and the cost of servicing that debt - to levels that allowed it plenty of space to spend on stimulating the economy. It did just that, and SA bounced rapidly out of recession. But the government carried on spending, particularly on the public sector payroll, even as the economy and tax collections slowed. Nor was growth a priority in an environment of state capture, corruption and political infighting.
The public debt has tripled over the past decade despite government commitments to rein it in. The cost of servicing that debt now almost equals the health budget. With foreign investors selling out of SA's local bond market and the yield on government bonds spiking in the past couple of weeks, it won't be too long before the government finds itself spending more on interest costs than it does on education. There is simply no fiscal space for SA's government to stimulate the economy as it did before.
There is at least some space on the monetary side. Rate cuts over the past couple of weeks by central banks in the US and UK have widened the gap between SA's rates and those of its trading partners. The crashing rand could be bad for inflation, but against that a $30 oil price could be good for it, and the Reserve Bank is now widely expected to cut rates at its meeting this week.
Globally, it's not clear how effective monetary policy will be in stimulating economies in the new, unprecedented corona crisis world. Cutting interest rates won't make quarantined people go shopping, nor will it reconnect the world's broken supply chains. In SA's case, cutting rates won't help to keep the lights on, nor remove any of the other supply side and policy and regulatory constraints. But therein lies the opportunity. There is plenty SA can do to turn its economy around. Is it too much to hope that the crisis might prompt some action - before it morphs into one that is economy class, and economy-wide?
• Joffe is contributing editor
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