“Hydro-politics”, we’ve been told, will dominate public affairs in the 21st century. That is certainly the case as the ANC elective conference approaches. Gwede Mantashe, ANC chair and mineral resources and energy minister, has recently displayed good water-animal skills.
It’s said a good politician, when witnessing an overflowing river, has to decide whether to swim with the tide or against it, but never to let the opportunity go to waste.
Mantashe saw President Cyril Ramaphosa hanging against the ropes and jumped in like a substitute wrestler. He has earned much credit for fighting in Ramaphosa’s corner, egging him to stay on instead of resigning.
This view of Mantashe as hero needs to consider history and the future.
He defended the Prince of Nkandla before state capture went steroidal. And we paid dearly.
In the short term, Ramaphosa could not wish for a better ally. Mantashe frolics in ANC mud with ease and is addicted to pain. He enjoys dishing it out. Those who know him well say it comes from his rugby-playing days, when crushing an opponent’s collarbone was part and parcel of ambition.
He will not be able to face his corrupt comrades or fire them as he is in the same boat. It is a question of shades, from Digital Vibes to Phala Phala
When the ANC hurly-burly of Nasrec is done, the party will need a new strategy to tackle the 2024 elections. And throwing weight around in the way Mantashe does will not help the party win more votes.
Also, history shows the ANC lost ground during Mantashe’s time in office as party secretary-general.
He saw an opportunity when Ramaphosa was preparing to resign. Struggling to retain his position as ANC chair, his bitter battle for the president is as much a battle for his survival.
There are several reasons many want Ramaphosa to get another term. He is the best of a terrible bunch. His political incompetence is astounding, but his backers and opponents realise only he can slow the rate of decline.
As a result, they hang on to his tail and some ride on his back like an alligator crossing a river. They will insult the alligator once they get to the other side.
Then there is the myth that dominates the markets and big business: that Ramaphosa will be a decisive leader in his second term, having ridden the Phala Phala scandal wave.
The hope is he will fire ministers such as Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu, his political opponents. I know it’s hard to believe, but these are the better-performing ministers.
Where will their replacements come from, if not from the moribund ANC? The Ramaphosa cabinet is packed with deadwood, forming the nucleus around the president in the party.
One of the reasons for poor economic progress under Ramaphosa is the failure to tackle structural problems, such as the state of the state. The state is broken, beyond repair, yet public discourse unfortunately centres on executive authority: around what politicians do or don’t do.
Instead of tackling the bureaucratic crisis, Ramaphosa skirts the issue and talks of a mythical social compact. It would never work because its sponsor, the state, is the problem. Business looks at Ramaphosa with suspicion when his tongue waxes lyrically about a compact.
Another reason for the lack of progress is that the ministers and their bureaucrats have neither interest nor ability to implement Ramaphosa’s grand plans. They are busy managing their fiefdoms while he goes from one ribbon-cutting event to another.
If he wins the ANC battle next week, Ramaphosa has to deliver two critical speeches in quick succession: the ANC January 8 anniversary address in Bloemfontein, followed by the state of the nation address (Sona).
I would bet my last rand that no one in his team is even thinking about what these should be about. Ramaphosa will look around a day before Sona in February and realise his administration has not done anything worth reporting in the past 12 months.
Eskom is dishing out record-breaking load-shedding. SAA, his signature SOE-revitalisation effort, is still in trouble. Red tape, a focal point of his 2022 speech, is still hobbling the economy.
How does he approach this as a public relations politician who enjoys spinning yarns?
He needs to tackle the failures head-on and start infusing the country with a new culture. What culture might that be when the head of government is as compromised as he is?
That explains why many in the ANC back him, not the official line about avoiding a national catastrophe should he quit.
A compromised Ramaphosa suits the overwhelmingly compromised ANC. He will not be able to face his corrupt comrades or fire them as he is in the same boat. It is a question of shades, from Digital Vibes to Phala Phala. And the verdict is that the latter, at least in Mantashe’s world, is not half as bad as Digital Vibes.
The ANC will tie Ramaphosa’s hands behind his back before his second term, turning him into a lame duck that cannot serve South Africa’s needs.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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