The International Criminal Court's (ICC) decision to issue an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes will cause headaches for Pretoria in the coming months.
South Africa is the chair of the Brics group and will host its annual shindig in Sandton this winter. Putin could attend.
No formal meeting with President Cyril Ramaphosa has been scheduled yet. It is customary for the annual gathering to double up as state visits to the host country, with the presidents holding bilateral meetings.
We might be heading towards a replay of Pretoria's failure to arrest Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir when he was in the country in June 2015, despite the ICC having issued a warrant for his arrest.
It's true that history repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce, as Karl Marx said.
Ramaphosa now has the tough job of telling Putin to stay away. South Africa is a signatory to the ICC and has a legal duty to arrest wanted people, whether foreign presidents or common fugitives.
Ramaphosa was a relative newbie in the Zuma administration when it handled the headache with Al-Bashir. Advocacy groups obtained a court order compelling the government to arrest him, but Al-Bashir, probably benefiting from a deliberate dragging of feet by the cops, was allowed to leave. The ICC said South Africa had failed in its duty.
Also during the Zuma years, South Africa bowed to China's demand to not grant a visa to the Dalai Lama. That earned the scorn of Desmond Tutu, who characterised the government as a “lickspittle”.
On Russia-Ukraine, South Africa is doing what a fence-sitter did during the fight against apartheid. It has failed to assert its historical position on the protection of human rights.
South Africa has offered to mediate in the war but nothing has come of that. In the bigger scheme of things, no-oney cares about our voice in the new global order.
We might be heading towards a replay of Pretoria's failure to arrest Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir
What Pretoria needs to worry about is the people it represents and crafting a foreign policy that serves the country's interests and does not bend to the whim of every dictator.
Russia is not the sole party or stakeholder in our trade and foreign policy approach. The West remains a big consumer of our goods. We are increasingly offending the US and its allies. That was palpable during the visit of US treasury secretary Janet Yellen in January.
Yellen held “off calendar” meetings with Ramaphosa and mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe, in addition to an official, planned meeting with finance minister Enoch Godongwana.
The slow pace of South Africa's just energy transition overshadowed her visit, which included a tour of the Ford plant in Pretoria. Ford is investing in its facilities as it looks to crank up global orders of vehicles such as the Ford Ranger.
South Africa-based car manufacturers could be collateral damage in an environment in which policy uncertainty is the only guarantee.
South African exports may be in a pickle over the next couple of years due to the slow pace of our move to a low-carbon economy if the world turns its nose up at products from fossil fuel exporting territories. It will then be difficult for global manufacturers to place new long-term investments in a country like ours.
Electric vehicles are one such investment category. Orders for the conventional vehicles we already produce may be threatened in the next couple of years.
Apart from the climate change debate, South Africa enjoys preferential access to the US market through the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
Brics events will continue to show our slide out of the international picture. Countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are keen to get a seat in the Brics forum. One African or middle-income country entering the club immediately dilutes our already diminishing role as the gateway to Africa.
How South Africa tactically influences other countries to not endorse the new applicants will be fascinating.
Over the next couple of weeks, Ramaphosa will pray that the ICC arrest warrant goes away long before the Brics events in August.
Otherwise, he might have to call Putin and explain that South Africa is a constitutional democracy and he may be unable to save him from arrest. Ramaphosa may face a legal suit to compel South Africa to arrest him.
In practical terms, arresting a man of Putin's stature is not conceivable — especially by the weak law enforcement system of a backwater country like ours.
It is not helpful to argue that the ICC action is undesirable. We can't cherry pick what ICC laws we like whenever it suits us. We are a voluntary signatory to the ICC statutes, warts and all.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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