The dollar cost R12 when President Cyril Ramaphosa kicked off his investment attraction drive in April 2018 with a trip to London. Six years later, he and his government are still engaged in talk shops, and the dollar — South Africa’s share price — is around R18, having lost about half its value since then.
All the clichés were doing the rounds on Thursday when the government hosted the fifth instalment of its investment conferences. It appeared to be a simple case of “putting foot to pedal”.
It is fascinating how the event has changed over the years. The first in 2018 was packed with business A-listers. This week, finding top CEOs was, as South Africans are prone to say, a “challenge”.
Five years on, the crowd was mainly of business people who would normally struggle to access government ’s decision-makers. They would have valued the networking opportunities provided by the event.
The diplomatic circuit, too, would have benefited from rubbing shoulders with government insiders. South Africa’s ambassadors and high commissioners were available in large numbers, but the voice of the people who run the government (directors-general) was missing from the programme.
Trail-blazers such as Reuel Khoza sat at the back, and the likes of Brian Dames mingled with those not included in the official programme. To a sensitive government, someone like Khoza is a risk — someone who tells it like it is when granted an audience.
Public opinion is divided about investment summits: some see them as mere public relations exercises that should be done away with, others value them as sentiment-building opportunities.
The big issue is the content of the offering. Ramaphosa kicked off his campaign with a promise to attract R1.2-trillion in new investment. One of his crucial reform initiatives was the e-visa, meant to attract skilled workers and tourists keen to explore our beautiful land.
Five years later, foreign businesses and diplomats are still struggling to get visas. Murmurs in the diplomatic huddles included one about a European airline CEO struggling to get the documentation to work from South Africa.
When even petrochemical companies struggle to meet decision-makers, you have to realise we still need to figure out how to attract investment.
Trade, industry & competition minister Ebrahim Patel, ever the micromanager, ran the conference the way he sees the political order. Minister without a role, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, was placed in a prominent panel at the main event, while minerals and energy minister Gwede Mantashe was shunted off to the filler panels, focusing on mining.
National Treasury and Reserve Bank leaders were dealing with investors at the “Spring meetings” in the US. Deputy minister of finance David Masondo was left to hold the fort.
Patel, typically, couldn’t be bothered with diary clashes, and so the conference went ahead while leaders of key institutions were abroad.
Also missing was a clear plan to ignite the economy. The buzz about renewable energy is a good response to the Eskom crisis, but it presents little in the way of reimagining the economy. Load-shedding will end at some stage, and then what? The economy will not be growing fast enough, or in an inclusive way.
Car manufacturers are champing at the bit for clarity on the country’s electric vehicle strategy. Questions also linger about possible trade penalties should South Africa’s climate change response not adhere to the global pace of reforms.
Ramaphosa would be happy with his calculations. The target of R1.2-trillion has been surpassed, now standing at R1.5-trillion. He has announced a second phase of the investment drive with a R2-trillion target. I’m told the actual implementation value of the first phase is R400bn.
These numbers are neither here nor there. Targets are important, and numbers can be an important part of the smoke-and-mirrors game, in which the government seems deeply involved.
The reality is most indicators tell the story of a country at a “precipice”, as Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad put it. The government doesn’t have the capacity to plan differently. We have no macro plan or detailed policies to move South Africa forward.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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