Two months into the job, electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa still needs a job description. At the same time, deputy president Paul Mashatile is settling in the west wing of the Union Buildings. He has assembled a respectable advisory team and hit the ground running, looking to establish himself as an authoritative figure while his boss does nothing.
Mashatile attended the African Continental Free Trade Area conference in Cape Town this week and wasted no opportunity to meet with key business figures. Ramokgopa suffered his first loss when his electricity plan was rejected at this week’s special cabinet meeting, called by President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The whole process is laughable as it shows that the key people in the Presidency don’t have a clue as to how the ANC and cabinet work.
Ramokgopa addressed the ANC’s national working committee, charming them with his electricity plan. However, the committee has nothing to do with government policy — it meets bi-weekly to deal with organisational matters.
After the NWC meeting, the president called the special cabinet meeting, attended by 30 ministers and their directors-general. Nothing wrong with that. Ordinarily, policy moves through the administrative sausage factory, including cabinet cluster meetings, before reaching the cabinet.
Ministers can always choose the direct route to the cabinet and submit plans the night before the meeting. With sufficient lobbying, a non-contentious plan sails through.
Ramokgopa’s job treads on the toes of minerals and energy minister Gwede Mantashe and his public enterprises counterpart, Pravin Gordhan. Snippets from Pretoria suggest Ramokgopa was sent packing as his colleagues felt his plan needed to align with the thinking of the National Energy Crisis Committee.
Ramokgopa’s job treads on the toes of minerals and energy minister Gwede Mantashe and his public enterprises counterpart, Pravin Gordhan
Ramokgopa’s first few weeks were spent on the road, visiting power stations. Nothing wrong there, except he was sailing close to the Gordhan wind. He made it worse when he said corruption was not the overriding reason for Eskom’s poor performance, contradicting Gordhan, who sees state capture and sabotage as responsible for the energy crisis.
Ramokgopa’s energy plan appears to be a sweetener for Matashe, a coal fundamentalist. He wants to increase the longevity of some coal stations, clearly contradicting cabinet policy to move to a low-carbon economy.
But Ramokgopa needs to do more than win over Mantashe when the very creation of the electricity ministry was meant to keep Mantashe at bay. No amount of nice words will render Ramokgopa’s existence less threatening to Mantashe.
These dynamics were not created by Ramokgopa, who daily has to dance on egg shells. He would succeed only if the president was prepared to do what is seemingly biologically impossible for him: take a firm stand on the direction the country takes. That would mean being prepared to clash even with allies.
Mantashe is no small fry and, when insecure, he will brawl like a pig in the mud. He is no fool, either. He needs Ramaphosa, as does the ANC if it wants to get respectable numbers at the 2024 elections. Without Ramaphosa, the ANC is nothing.
Ramaphosa seems unable to have heart-to-heart conversations with his allies. He ought to have managed Mantashe better a long-time ago.
Failure to manage the intra-ANC wars in the intervening period simply postpones the problem. Ramaphosa will have to operate in a far more hostile political environment after the 2024 elections. The ANC will value him less.
It is not inconceivable that the Mashatiles, Mantashes and their backers could realign and push him out of office or render him a lame-duck. The government he leads works with a cabinet system, and the ministers could form powerful blocs if the president, who chairs the cabinet, is not in touch with its political and the administrative manoeuvres.
Add ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula to the mix, and you realise there are more potential Judas Iscariots than Ramaphosa can handle.
Mantashe was vocal in the removal of Thabo Mbeki, while Mashatile played a key role in fighting Jacob Zuma and ultimately plunging in the dagger.
Ramaphosa is one scandal away from his political grave. He has a few months to make meaningful changes to how the government is run. Otherwise it’s game over. In this same period, some of his colleagues are imagining a future without him.
Meanwhile, energy cuts will continue to disrupt the economy until Eskom buys diesel to help the ANC manage its election campaign.
* Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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