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SAM MKOKELI: Comical moments highlight deep panic over Putin visit

South Africa will be in a tricky position if Russian leader Vladimir Putin visits for the Brics summit in August.  Picture: ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/REUTERS
South Africa will be in a tricky position if Russian leader Vladimir Putin visits for the Brics summit in August. Picture: ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/REUTERS

It takes a lot to get things wrong when two heads of state address the media. It's usually a culmination of weeks of planning, and, after a closed meeting, the two heads face reporters having signed trade and diplomatic agreements.

This week, comically, our flag fell slap bang between President Cyril Ramaphosa and his guest, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö.

From there on, it was amateur hour, resembling a Jim Carrey movie.

Ramaphosa blurted out that the ANC had decided South Africa would pull out of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

This was apparently after he and ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula misread the party's decision to rescind an earlier intention to withdraw.

The error was corrected by a statement throwing Mbalula under the bus. Presidential spokesperson Vincent Magwenya said Ramaphosa erred as a consequence of Mbalula's mistaken statement.

You have to wonder at the wisdom of relying on Mbalula's interpretation of a meeting Ramaphosa also attended.

Mbalula has many traits that may be of benefit to the ANC. He is no policy wonk, though. 

If Mbalula had said the ANC had decided to eat Russian President Vladimir Putin, would Ramaphosa have repeated that? Has the president no view of his own, to be able to tell when something jars, such as the aborted plan to pull out of the ICC?

What the comical moments underlined is deep panic about Putin's likely visit in August, what with the arrest warrant issued by the ICC.

Sanusha Naidu, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, says South Africa has a “moral dilemma”.

“It historically has a Nelson Mandelasque foreign policy, and is a signatory of the Rome statute and member of the ICC. It therefore has a moral obligation to [arrest Putin].”

South Africa could pull off a “diplomatic coup” if it persuaded Putin to attend virtually or stay away altogether, she said.

Going crazy about Brics can alienate the West

“Even if Putin comes, who dares go and arrest him? It would have to be a citizen's arrest, as no official would be brave enough. Even the NGOs will hide behind the courts, but no one will want to carry out the actual arrest,” she said.

A precedent could also be set for Brazil, which is set to host next year's Brics annual gathering, said Naidu. Brazil is also a member of the ICC and a signatory to the Rome statute and would likely face the same diplomatic headaches as South Africa.

This is no time for amateurs. Our foreign policy has been all over the show since Thabo Mbeki left the Union Buildings.

Ramaphosa has a chance to establish South Africa as an important voice and also establish a powerful platform for greater good. The Putin situation is like a rock and a hard place for South Africa. But more so for the Kremlin. 

In that regard, kowtowing to a wounded Putin would not be a wise plan. 

Stanislav Kucher, a political analyst at Samizdat Online, told global news start-up Semafor: “The very idea of multipolarity that Putin dreams about, imagining how he will lead the anti-Western world, is being realised. But, under today's conditions, he will have to watch these processes on a video monitor. 

“And it’s no longer a given that in such a situation of restrictions and international condemnation, Brics members and its future participants will treat him as the centre of a new world. In that party, they respect the right of a strong beast, not a hunted one.”

More than a dozen countries want to join Brics. South Africa is already in the tent and has a voice that can influence other members on which applicants to vote for.

South Africa's relationship with the UAE, one of the applicants, is deteriorating. After the release of the Guptas from that country we can expect Pretoria to persuade its allies in Brics to not support the UAE. These are not easy manoeuvres. Behind them are economic ties, both new and old. 

Going crazy about Brics can alienate the West, a key part of the South African trade infrastructure. Trade with the likes of the US, Germany and the UK far outweighs what Putin offers us.

Managing the old and new opportunities is quite the task. I don't envy Ramaphosa, our flag carrier.

• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory

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