There is so much typically South African talk about the benefits of Brics and how it provides a path to the land of milk and honey. At the same time, it is easy for South Africans to starve while in the land of plenty.
Our ill-preparedness to maximise our benefits is stark. The government is caught between a rock and a hard place over the arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Many focus on the validity of the International Criminal Court (ICC) instead of on what domestic law demands of our government when the ICC issues an arrest warrant.
The matter is clear as daylight. In law, the government has to execute the warrant. Politically, it is something else.
No-one would want to arrest someone as powerful as Putin. But that is a different matter. Failure to execute the warrant would create a constitutional crisis in South Africa, where the executive would have ignored the country's laws. The precedent is found in the Omar al-Bashir matter.
We are at the mercy of Putin and our partners in the Brics community. As things stand, only if he stays away from the August summit or attends virtually can we avoid a dramatic meeting.
South Africa may need to rely on senior partners such as China and Brazil to persuade Putin to stay away. Giving up the conference so it is hosted by a country like China, which is not a Rome Statute signatory, would represent a big loss for South Africa.
There is a clamour for competing countries to join Brics, and South Africa would lose a lot of moral and psychological weight if the conference had to move.
Amid the Putin drama, Beijing is paying close attention to the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) review process and how it will respond if South Africa's eligibility is ended.
Our government is doing a lot of paddling under the water, but jeepers, they appear like palookas on the world stage
China has subtly signalled to the Union Buildings that Beijing would open its domestic market for increased South African imports in compensation for any exclusion from Agoa.
This would be a major development with far-reaching implications for South Africa's trade patterns and private sector operations.
Even if South Africa is not excluded from Agoa eligibility in the next 18 months, it would seem that Beijing is prepared to receive more South African exports. Which sectors will benefit remains to be seen.
We also hear that Beijing has indicated to Pretoria that it will not approve of any attempt to exclude Putin's physical participation in the summit. President Xi Jinping might decide to stay away from the meeting in response.
This reflects the growing convergence of interests between Beijing and Moscow in shaping a new geopolitical alignment outside the reach of Western capitals.
A commentary last week by Rajiv Bhatia, India's former high commissioner to Pretoria, contained a number of intriguing points on the future of Brics and its enlargement.
Three options are available, he noted: a mega expansion that raises the membership from five to 21, thus surpassing the G-20; limited admission of 10 new members, two each supported by an existing member; and admission of only five new members, one each supported by an existing member, with none of the other four using their veto.
India seems to favour the expansion if it is based on agreed criteria and moves gradually.
Preparatory meetings of foreign ministers and national security advisers are certain to deliberate on this subject, Bhatia noted. “Should the third option win consensus, Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, UAE and Bangladesh are the most likely states to make the cut.”
All these shifts require a confident South Africa to be a driving force around this year's conference.
There are many other behind-the-scenes matters where our role and potential are underplayed.
The key role played by President Cyril Ramaphosa's national security adviser, Sydney Mufamadi, in the Pretoria-Washington dynamic is public knowledge. However, his role in preparing the ground for the Brics summit outcomes is less publicised. His role in busting the Black Sea grain gridlock is another aspect.
Our government is doing a lot of paddling under the water, but jeepers, they appear like palookas on the world stage. You would swear we did not host the Brics event 10 years ago.
A panicked move deeper into Brics at the expense of the bigger trade lines in the West would be catastrophic in the short term.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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