Many civil servants have scars from brushes with politicians over the past decade, and such horrors may flare up again.
Senior managers, for example, were forced to lick their wounds in London when Jacob Zuma cancelled an investment roadshow addressed by then finance minister Pravin Gordhan and his Treasury director-general Lungisa Fuzile.
Passionate and committed civil servants were left dazed and confused over the next few days, leading up to Gordhan’s late-night dismissal.
Unlike his predecessors, Gordhan did not receive so much as a courtesy call nor get the chance to say goodbye to his colleagues. He was at home, probably in bed, when the media announced that Malusi Gigaba was his successor.
In earlier years, Nhlanhla Nene ran the Treasury under tough political circumstances — denied the support of the president. Zuma wanted a nuclear deal, among other things, which the Treasury, under Nene, felt was unaffordable and would bankrupt the country.
Treasury is now running out of options, having to rein in spending. It is preparing to cut spending by as much as 15%, an impossible task as election season has dawned, and ANC ministers want the spending taps opened.
Previous political changes often came with new ways of doing things that assaulted the sensibilities of the professionals at Treasury, who had developed a culture and philosophy to manage the public purse.
The political changes and reshaped approaches to public finances made a career at 40 Church Square a miserable affair for some. Fuzile left and was followed by a batch of senior civil servants.
The consequences of the ensuing brain drain will be thrown into sharp relief as Treasury prepares to cut spending. Whether it has the technical capacity to manage budgets at national and provincial levels remains to be seen.
The other factor in the spotlight will be its ability to firmly say “no” when spending departments forcefully ask for funds.
Right now, we do not have a coherent cabinet strategy for economic management, isolating Treasury and exposing it to attacks from the ruling party
What Treasury will need is buy-in and active, loud support from President Cyril Ramaphosa. Mere mention of the notion of a supportive Ramaphosa could spark flashbacks to 2021, when Treasury officials were forced to fund the revival of SAA against their recommendations.
The importance of synergy between finance minister and president can never be underestimated. Also essential is synergy at cabinet level, as it is ultimately the structure that says yea or nay to the budget.
Right now, we do not have a coherent cabinet strategy for economic management, isolating Treasury and exposing it to attacks from the ruling party.
As it seeks to tighten belts, Ramaphosa is already sending out mixed signals.
On the ANC’s 2024 election campaign trail last weekend, he said: “The revenue projections that we had have been lower than what we had anticipated. That immediately tells you that we are going to have headwinds.”
He added: “The discussion is ongoing. It is not necessarily cutting spending, it is seeing how best you focus on your key delivery areas … [and] you look at how you recalibrate the other spending — you re-prioritise.”
With that, it becomes clear as mud where the president will stand in the battle about to ensue.
At the same time, there is no doubt about Treasury’s intentions. The head of its budget office, Edgar Sishi, at a panel discussion during the Reserve Bank's biennial conference in Cape Town two weeks ago, starkly asserted that “2023 will not be happy for the spenders”.
Grab the popcorn, as a gigantic fight unfolds that is sure to smash commonly held beliefs about South Africa’s budget system.
If the intended belt tightening is not realised, Treasury’s credibility regarding budgeting will dissolve. We will all begin to question the veracity of its promises. And the technocrats at Treasury will need new vocabularies to explain their approach.
Continued failure to ram through the necessary cuts will render their gospel of “fiscal consolidation” mere empty talk.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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