The complexities that could affect the election of our next president and cabinet after the May 29 election results are confirmed suggest we are in for a crazy time if there’s no outright winner.
Constitutionally, the president must be elected by the newly constituted National Assembly, which must be convened within 14 days of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) certifying the final results. It normally takes just a few days for the IEC to do this. Last time it was three days.
Though the May 29 elections are still two months away, opposition party leaders and strategists are considering the dynamics that may be in play during the 14-day interregnum.
It may be very different from all our previous post-1994 elections, where the ANC used its unchallenged majority to elect its leader as South Africa’s president.
By convention, a new cabinet is announced a few days after the new president has been chosen, as the term of office of the previous cabinet falls away with the election of the new leader.
This time, the focus on the 14-day period leading into mid-June has been prompted by an apparent consensus that the ANC is likely to fall below the 50% mark in these elections for the first time.
The most recent opinion poll, conducted for eNCA by Markdata, shows ANC support at 41.4%. Rather unscientifically, I would add five percentage points, give or take, to that number, because the ANC is capable of ramping up its campaign.
Turnout on election day will also be crucial in shaping the final results. A low turnout is generally thought to boost minority parties, whose voters are more inclined to get out and vote than ruling-party supporters.
The ANC’s election machinery will deliver a good few percentage points more than the Markdata poll. But it is unlikely campaign razzmatazz will push the party above the 50% mark.
The first implication of the ANC receiving fewer than half of the votes is that it will need to secure support from smaller parties to secure the election of its presidential candidate in the National Assembly.
Early results from the crucial provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng will have party strategists preparing their leaders for the expected final result. So coalition feelers will probably be put out immediately when the results on the board show there’s likely to be no outright winner.
The ANC’s election machinery will deliver a good few percentage points more than the Markdata poll. But it is unlikely campaign razzmatazz will push the party above the 50% mark.
It will be like a red-hanger sale, or an auction, with the smallest parties as important as the biggest.
We are well-versed in the internal ANC dynamics at play when decisions are made about cabinet choices — the party’s need to balance provincial ANC interests and include those favoured by the SACP and Cosatu.
It remains to be seen how extensive the required coalition or working arrangement between the ANC and smaller parties will be. The larger the deal needed, the greater the potential impact it will have on the composition of our next cabinet.
Parties will jostle for portfolios. The prime ones are those in the core economic cluster — presently the informal domain of ministers with a background in Cosatu and the SACP.
Interestingly, the constitution prescribes no time limit within which a new cabinet must be announced.
In a grand coalition it is required to form a substantial majority in parliament, other dynamics come into play. One of these is that a junior partner potentially limits its participation to controlling parliament, ensuring oversight of the cabinet.
Perhaps the crucial issue for business is the possible exit or removal of Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the ANC after an unexpectedly poor election result.
Ramaphosa has of the last 10 months led the government into an increasingly close set of relationships with South Africa’s captains of industry and finance. Business deployees through the Business for South Africa (B4SA) platform have added important heft to government initiatives to stabilise Eskom and Transnet, and have played a less prominent role in the crime and corruption sector.
One consequence is that business leaders have been exposed to the soft underbelly of the state’s constraints in driving policy reform in crucial sectors and its very limited ability to undertake and complete deadline-driven projects.
Only two weeks ago, the Presidency and B4SA agreed that their partnership would continue in the “long term”.
In short, the first 14 days of June could either entrench the business-government relationship or break it.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory.
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