President Cyril Ramaphosa may have to beg foreign minister Naledi Pandor to remain in politics for a few years, despite her announcing her departure after the May 29 poll.
My assumption is that the ANC will scrape through the elections or lead a coalition government.
The global political environment is in a state of flux, with the strong likelihood that the majority of the US population might choose Donald Trump as the best man to, once again, lead the world’s biggest economy.
South Africa will have its hands full next year as it chairs the G20 and hosts its annual gathering, probably in Johannesburg. This moment alone will put incredible pressure on Pretoria, requiring operational dexterity and policy grounding.
Trump’s second coming could herald big geopolitical shifts, starting with the Russia-Ukraine war. Considering his bromance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, it may be easier to finally achieve a ceasefire. Trump will find it hard to balance his love for Putin and still maintain US support for Ukraine.
Pandor has earned kudos for her pro-Palestinian stance in the Hamas-Israel conflict and has provided Ramaphosa with the comfort that he has a dependable pair of hands on the foreign policy portfolio
South Africa has been accused, justifiably, not just of speaking from both sides of its mouth on the Russia-Ukraine war but of speaking more Russian.
Pandor has earned kudos for her pro-Palestinian stance in the Hamas-Israel conflict and has provided Ramaphosa with the comfort that he has a dependable pair of hands on the foreign policy portfolio. In a rare situation in Pretoria nowadays, she has a healthy, professional relationship with the department’s director-general, Zane Dangor, one of the most respected senior technocrats,
It’s worth bearing in mind that Pandor was Ramaphosa’s preferred deputy president when he first campaigned to lead the ANC in 2017. It so happened that the ANC’s factional configurations gave Ramaphosa David Mabuza as his No 2. Nobody knows what Mabuza did during his five years in Pretoria, besides breathing. But that’s a discussion for another day, if ever.
Trump can be guaranteed to unleash his aggressive rhetoric and nationalist and isolationist policy agenda at home and abroad. Already, many are nervous that he could cut South Africa out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).
In trade equity terms, Agoa is like affirmative action. It was Bill Clinton’s initiative to boost access to US markets for about 40 African countries. It eliminates import levies on more than 7,000 products, ranging from textiles to manufactured items.
For the US, the deal is like corporate social investment to help keep relations with Sub-Saharan Africa warm.
In 2022, combined two-way trade between Agoa beneficiaries and the US exceeded $46bn (R869.60bn), with US imports exceeding exports by $13.5bn (R255.21bn), according to stats from Tralac, a trade research consultancy. Agoa beneficiaries exported $30bn (R567.13bn) worth of goods to the US in that year, with $10.2bn traded under duty-free Agoa preference.
Cutting South Africa out of the trade deal would collapse the scheme, as it is the single biggest exporter outside of the oil-producing nations, with a diverse basket from manufacturing to agricultural products.
Trump is a proponent of both tariffs and restrictions in general terms (sometimes not dissimilar to Biden), and with more noise in the US Congress South Africa can expect to feel constantly insecure. The idea of Trump pulling the trigger and booting South Africa out of Agoa is not inconceivable, but I doubt it would be in the US’s strategic interest.
Countries such as China and India, and even Russia, have grown their tentacles across Africa in political and security relations terms, and it would be unwise for the US to push South Africa further away.
It would also hurt US allies such as Germany, which has manufacturers and producers in South Africa sending goods to the US via Agoa.
The rise of the Brics group and other global economic trends suggest US power will wane in the next decade, with China and India set for massive growth. Clumsy moves from Washington would hasten the decline of the US if it alienated strategic regions.
There are signs that the ANC is preparing to bolster its foreign affairs team after the elections. Ebrahim Rasool, one of the party’s foremost foreign policy veterans, is on the list for parliament and would be eligible for selection to the national executive, either as minister or deputy.
The constitution allows the president to choose no more than two people from outside parliament when a cabinet is formed, and this provision would have to be used to bring Pandor back after May 29. If she declines, maybe posting her to Washington as our ambassador would be consistent with the trend of posting advanced-age career politicians. She can’t possibly do worse than most of our representatives abroad.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory.
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