What would the DA be like if it were a business? Here is an enterprise choosing not to grow, yet there is a sea of ready-to-pay clients. The DA blew up under former leaders Tony Leon and Helen Zille, and plateaued in the early 20 percents, having recorded a marginal drop under Mmusi Maimane.
For a party that moved from 12% to 16% and 22.23% in three successive elections since 2004, it looks like it is in a plateau, where it can only move marginally around the early 20s. It looks like it is doing everything to chase away new voters. If it were a retailer, it would put up a “right-wing customers only” sign at the door.
They know what they are doing, no mistake about it. They are not likely to grow among the most significant segment of potential voters: black voters. They have chased every single black politician of stature away from the party in the past decade.
And realising their growth in the black market between 2009 and 2014 opened an opportunity for parties on the Right to nibble away at their white flank — the Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus) has been doing well and looks attractive to the DA’s core base.
The DA is concerned that its forays into the black market have failed, and the FF Plus could snatch the white market at the same time. It, therefore, chooses to contain the votes it already has instead of looking to grow where there is a sea of new customers. For this reason, it is doubling down in defending its apparent tone-deaf existence, including its lily-white leadership appearance and inflammatory campaign narratives.
It is in the news lately over a depiction of a burning South African flag, signifying the potential destruction of the republic under what the DA calls a doomsday scenario of an ANC-EFF coalition. The EFF is a firm target of the DA armoury because it threatens to take what the DA wants badly: a coalition with the ANC.
The doomsday characterisation is meant to put fear into the financial markets, so the ANC could fear capital flight should it choose the EFF. The risk of a market sell-off under the ANC-EFF option is real, as investors are already looking for exit or hedging options.
The DA has a real chance of getting into a coalition with the ANC if the governing party falls below 50% in both the national and KwaZulu-Natal provincial set-up. In fact, the ANC stands a big chance of falling below 50% in both KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. To triangulate a coalition arrangement, the DA is one of the cogs required in a club deal.
The DA is concerned that its forays into the black market have failed, and the FF Plus could snatch the white market at the same time
But it’s a more complicated mess than I am presenting here. The provincial players in the ANC may insist on their own deals in each province, creating an environment of a new federalisation of the ANC.
The SABC has entered the fray and rejected the DA’s burning flag advert. The DA will not take this lying down and will want to ride the wave, arguing that the public broadcaster is under the cosh of the ANC. The SABC still needs to take the public’s confidence in its decision. So far, its communication suggests it cowered after public uproar and comments from Cyril Ramaphosa, the face of the ANC campaign. So far, it doesn’t look good for the SABC. I can’t wait to see it name the chapter and verse of the law or policy that allows it to reject the DA’s patently attention-seeking ad.
The SABC may well find that it cannot muzzle foolish parties, as the law does not prohibit what appears like idiocy from a party that is happy with flatlining. Its leaders are well aware that their coalition strategy coincides with favourable sentiments in the markets, making their suitability a bit more appealing to the ANC than other potential suitors. Their success lies in coalition positioning more than actual growth. They do not mind annoying almost 80% of the political market at this phase of the campaign.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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