'There are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks where decades happen, Lenin said.
South African public life splits this notion up in contradictory ways. We end up with weeks where decades happen in terms of palace politics, but when it comes to policy and implementation, we get decades where nothing happens.
This week, some of our cabinet members were in China, speaking the language of attracting investment, and sometimes sounding like stuck records. At the same time, minister of minerals & petroleum resources Gwede Mantashe was in Australia, also to woo potential investors.
South African mining is in trouble owing to a number of serious own goals over the past decade — most notably, failing logistics infrastructure and ongoing energy shortages
Mantashe sits at the pinnacle of our economy in terms of his importance to it, and yet he operates without a fresh strategy to bring in investment. South African mining is in trouble owing to a number of serious own goals over the past decade — most notably, failing logistics infrastructure and ongoing energy shortages.
It is believed the world will in future need South Africa’s critical minerals, and Mantashe’s department is now leading efforts to quantify them. That the government has not already done this tells us a lot, but it’s better late than never.
The department’s state of mining research will look at several issues — including the contribution mining makes to the economy, as well as the performance of and trends associated with each commodity in terms of production, exploration, exports, sales, employment and prices — Mantashe told attendees of the Africa Down Under conference in Australia this week.
Coupled with this study is South Africa’s “critical minerals strategy”, which will serve as the nation’s blueprint for the exploration and exploitation of its mineral wealth.
South Africa is a bit slow off the blocks when it comes to finding a plan for the new minerals. But it is not the only country trying to find its way with these commodities, if that is any consolation.
The Economist magazine recently painted a picture of the UK government playing catch-the-critical-minerals wave.
Demand for such substances is likely to increase several-fold in the next couple of decades. Companies and governments alike are scrambling to secure supplies, build processing capacity, and nurture industries such as electric vehicles (EVs) and wind power.
The UK government’s critical-minerals strategy identifies more than a dozen substances — including lithium, cobalt (another component in EV batteries) and rare earth elements — crucial for the permanent magnets that drive EVs and wind turbines, according to the magazine.
Mining territories’ ability to export these minerals to boost their domestic economies will depend on China’s economic health.
Reliance on a customer such as China, often characterised by the West as unfriendly, can be risky — especially where China also dominates the “midstream” refining of critical minerals into metals and alloys. The Asian economic giant processes the lion’s share of lithium and cobalt, and is the leading maker of EV batteries too.
The South African study will rank each mineral in terms of how critical it is, using various methodologies such as supply risk, as well as employment, domestic and export sales, and substitutability indicators, among other issues.
“There is a very strong case emerging out of these studies that the South African mining industry remains an attractive investment destination,” Mantashe said.
He has lot of urgent work to do if we are to believe him — and he has in the past been inordinately slow.
In 2021, Mantashe undertook to improve the mineral rights data system in just six months — but the cadastral system was procured only this year. Meanwhile, mining companies have been suffering because turnaround times in processing and granting prospecting rights have been so slow. Some of the backlogs are almost a decade old.
This week, Mantashe told his audience the first phase of modernising the licensing system to ensure regulatory certainty and the sustainability of the mining industry had already been completed. He was referring to the appointment of a service provider for the new system’s design, implementation and maintenance.
He said requirements with respect to system hosting, software integration and enhancing cybersecurity in line with the country’s governance principles had also been completed.
“In essence, the meticulous implementation of the new system is advancing very well, [and there is] an intention to complete the migration process by June next year.”
Well, it’s hard for even the most optimistic among us to believe these milestones will be met. Mantashe’s boss, President Cyril Ramaphosa, needs to keep a close eye on the deadlines so the minister stays on course. If he does not do this, we will end up with a decade where nothing happens in terms of policy implementation.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory.
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