Linden Birns, aviation expert and MD of aviation consultancy Plane Talking, says the Air Traffic & Navigation Services (ATNS) agency, which suspended hundreds of flight procedures after missing a July deadline to update them, ignored a skills crisis long in the making with dire consequences for the industry and the economic growth it feeds.
“The ATNS agency seems to be plagued by a complete lack of skills. They didn't seem to acknowledge the crisis as it was developing.”
Now it's led to a situation that will have “huge” commercial consequences for the aviation industry and multiple economic sectors dependent on it, Birns says.
“There's been a lot of suspicion that ATNS was getting thin on the ground in terms of personnel. We started seeing 'flow control' being introduced in Johannesburg because of a shortage of air traffic controllers.”
Flow control is used to manage incoming and outgoing flights in busy air space such as around OR Tambo International, Lanseria, Grand Central, Rand Airport, Wonderboom and other Johannesburg airports when there aren't enough air traffic controllers.
ATNS increased intervals between flights to help the controllers they have manage the traffic. This led to frequent delays, with aircraft arriving in Johannesburg being put in holding patterns.
“We still have that situation. But in July it really became abundantly clear they were under-resourced and hadn't been managing the situation properly at all, when they suddenly announced they were going to withdraw indefinitely over 300 instrument flight procedures around the country. And that they wouldn't be able to clear the backlog till at least December 2025.”
A measure of the commercial consequences is that from July 19 to October 19 just one airline had more than 3,890 flights delayed, while 77 of its flights had to be cancelled and 12 had to divert. The cumulative delay time was 63 days.
“Airlines have no comeback against ATNS when they have to incur the additional fuel costs caused by diversions and delays, flying around in circles waiting to land at an airport where the instrument approach procedure has been withdrawn.”
They can't claim for damages from ATNS and still have to pay them the normal user fees, Birns says. Adding insult to injury is that ATNS has applied for an increase in these fees.
There's been “a fair amount of pushback” from local and foreign airlines who feel the fees are already too high given the poor service they're getting.
“The airlines are carrying a huge cost burden,” he says. Meanwhile, the airports have been “surprisingly quiet” in their criticism of ATNS given the reputational damage the agency's “administrative botch-up” is causing them.
They commit to minimum connection times when negotiating with an airline to fly to their airport, he explains.
“They say this is the minimum amount of time your passengers will need to get off your flight onto a connecting flight. If you're operating a hub-and-spoke airport like an OR Tambo, which you're trying to position as a gateway into the rest of South Africa and Southern Africa, then that is absolutely critical.
“When you've got your sister entity dropping the ball in terms of procedures and causing a lot of delays, then you have a lot of mayhem at the airports. It has a cascading effect across all operations.”
Then there's the cargo the airlines are carrying. “If you're transporting perishables such as pharmaceuticals, blood, samples for laboratories, agricultural produce requiring carefully temperature-controlled storage facilities, you can't have high-value stuff standing around on the apron and spoiling.”
The consequences for e-commerce providers and automotive industry component makers who have just-in-time production contracts with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in Europe but can't get a flight in and out of Gqeberha or East London can be devastating in a highly competitive international environment, he says.
'Go and look at other parts of the world where they've seen the power of air transport connectivity and how completely transformative it can be for your economy'
“There are all these knock-on effects throughout the economy. For a country like ours, if we're trying to attract investment, local or foreign, into the manufacturing sector to create jobs, if we're trying to promote tourism and use its enabling, catalytic powers to address our rate of unemployment, then we need to get a handle on these things, because this is what is going to trip us up.”
Suspending flight procedures may sound like “an abstract aviation thing”, but it has very real implications for everyone, says Birns. A government that allows this to happen is one that doesn't take seriously enough the key role of air transport in the country's economic growth, he argues.
He’s listened to enough MPs at parliamentary committee meetings to know that the role of air connectivity in unleashing the growth potential of tourism is not taken seriously.
“Go and look at other parts of the world where they've seen the power of air transport connectivity and how completely transformative it can be for your economy.”
Dubai and Singapore are examples of countries that put air connectivity front and centre of their economic strategy, he says. Ethiopia is beginning to see the enormous economic benefits of air connectivity as well.
“When you talk about our competitive position in the world, we're in an environment today where it's all about services and connectivity and the integrity of your supply chain. How can you run a complex, sophisticated, competitive economy in an aspirational country if you can't get the basic infrastructure right?”
Further examples of the parlous state of the ATNS and its watchdog body the Civil Aviation Authority, which he believes is complicit in the disastrous suspension of flight procedures, have been repetitive failures that pilots have voiced serious concerns about for years, such as frequency network breakdowns, breakdowns of air traffic control communication links with pilots, and broken backup systems.
“There's definitely a capacity crisis. The irony is that ATNS runs a college which turns out some of the most sought-after skilled people worldwide. We have ATNS counterparts from the Gulf, the UK, Australia, the US coming here to lure our talent away. Which is understandable; it's a competitive environment.”
What he finds "bizarre" is that ATNS, "in complete denial” about the crisis, “has not been keen on trying to lure them back”.
Developing a skills pipeline for the aviation industry needs to be prioritised to facilitate economic growth and job creation, he says. “But it's proving to be a big headache.”
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