Africa is experiencing something akin to the Year of the Locust as the people’s wrath pulls unresponsive governing parties from power.
Namibians go to the polls on Wednesday, and there is a strong chance they will do to the ruling Swapo what South Africans did to the ANC on May 7. Ghana follows on December 7, with a strong possibility the opposition could triumph.
This is the nadir for African liberation parties, with political formations joined at the hip during tough days in the trenches gasping for their last breath. Swapo and its sister party the ANC are travelling a road previously trodden by the United National Independence Party of Zambia into extinction, creating a new era in Africa’s democratisation away from independence or liberation politics.
Africa faces massive opportunities and deep threats at the same time. From December 1, South Africa will preside over the G20, a year-long extravaganza that brings together about 80% of the world’s economies. The government wants to make the South African chairmanship of the G20 “Africa-centric”, whatever that means. (Slogans often betray a lack of vision or crisp agenda, which I suspect is the case with our government). The event will be the biggest we’ve ever hosted.
SA must walk a tightrope
between tackling climate
change and progress
Investec Bank CEO Cumesh Moodliar says South Africa’s presidency presents the country with a perfect opportunity to attract foreign direct investment. The G20 presidency, which culminates in a summit a year from now, is the perfect tonic for the country to showcase its capabilities on the world stage, he says.
“If you look at the last two countries that had the G20 presidency, India and Brazil, they certainly leveraged the presidency to expand their international presence ... We see this as an opportunity to showcase SA Inc and put forward the best of what South Africa has in the framework of the world’s most industrialised countries,” Moodliar told Business Day.
“If I cast my mind back to the 2010 Fifa World Cup and think of what it did for the country as a sporting event, I think the same energy is needed to rally around the G20 presidency. That is what can unlock a significant spend in SA.”
The potential to influence discussions on the global economy is enormous. Nations like Ghana will look to South Africa to forcefully place the topic of Africa’s highly indebted countries on the agenda. Ghana has the dubious honour of being the most indebted African country to the IMF. It is one of the vulnerable economies where governments spend more servicing their debt than on health, education and social programmes combined.
It is an opportunity to argue for speedy reforms of the IMF and the World Bank, and also the UN. Issues relating to voting rights for emerging economies and lending programmes in the developing world come to mind. Averting pandemics and responding to them must be one of the discussion areas.
South Africa also has an opportunity to take a strong position on climate change.
It must walk a tightrope between supporting climate change efforts and simultaneously argue for the Global South’s industrialisation and exemptions from some mitigation measures, such as carbon tariffs.
Emerging economies have a disproportionate burden as they respond to climate disasters. It is now an opportunity to accelerate discussions about the reform of the international financial architecture, and to see the creation of effective climate and environmental funds.
A couple of major conflicts — Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine — will provide the political backdrop to the interactions. This gives South Africa the podium to influence global politics, and appear as a strong voice for global peace.
Do we have the ability to do this? The answer is a resounding no because we need an obvious agenda or programme. We are capable of hosting parties, and this will be a success. There will be nervous moments, from tight budgets to managing conflicts about warring heads of state like Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky or Donald Trump.
G20 2025 provides great investment attraction, trade and general marketing opportunities for South Africans and African countries, while the locust continues dragging the old powers from office. This is an opportunity we should take seriously.
We can build a better image as an investment destination and a political voice in global affairs. It is a little hard when the domestic fundamentals are as tricky as South Africa’s political economy, with various structural factors condemning us to a low-growth trajectory. We can, however, shift sentiment in a lasting way.
• Mkokeli is the lead partner at Mkokeli Advisory, a public affairs consultancy.
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