The ANC’s January 8 celebrations represent the paradox of the party’s rich history as well as its difficulty in arresting decay.
Momentum is declining, and renewal is limited to simple talk without new ideas being offered. Historically, the January 8 celebrations were an important moment for party leaders to issue marching orders to the rank and file.
This was especially so during the three difficult decades when the ANC was banned by the apartheid government, with its leaders in exile on the continent and in Europe. With the struggle leaders banned, their message could only be relayed through secret communication channels. Those were hard times.
Cyril Ramaphosa and his colleagues in the ANC top brass exist in a different era, with no great leaders and no great followers.
For marching orders to be effective, three things need to exist: strong leaders, great content and disciplined followers. All of these are in short supply today. The ANC needs new practices and a whole new culture to transform itself into a party that can add a few more years to the 113th birthdays it has celebrated.
It is incredibly hard to steer a party like the ANC, steeped in history and culture as it is. The membership is used to the broken and obsolete practices, and it is impossible to turn it around, as shown by the deep levels of decay of the last three decades.
The party membership is largely about state largesse and not much else. Ditto the leadership. Society is disillusioned with the leadership speak and ethos that has masked grand thieving in recent years.
This requires soul-searching, which I’m afraid is impossible if both the membership and leaders are engrossed in survival politics. It is hard to change big and old organisations. Many in the ANC believe in the myth of “fixing an aeroplane while flying it”. If the ANC were an aeroplane, it would cover only 40% of its travel distance, judging by the share of its votes in last year’s elections.
Fixing it should be done within the 40% range. Crashing is a definite possibility. With each passing year, it is getting closer to a crash. Ramaphosa will exit the ANC hotseat in 2027, which will spell the end of an era of leadership respectability and pedigree. What follows will mark the beginning of a chapter of no-name politicians who were neither exiled nor important when the ANC came in from the bush.
We live in a completely different country than could have been the case if a creature other than the GNU was chosen as a coalition, as was possible after the May elections
Ramaphosa cannot introduce a new culture or establish a runway for a successor to take off. He is neither personally driven nor visionary enough to create sustainability in the party. He will forever be credited with being there when a string of focal point was required to fight the “Zuptas” and their state capture. Even his severest critics would recognise that.
The birthday bash will soon be followed by the government programme, which includes the state of the nation address and budget speech, both in February. The beauty of South Africa’s open society is the transparency and predictability of the fiscal programme, which allows us to foresee the difficult economic policy terrain ahead. There’s no room for big ideas like the basic income grant. The jobs of those in charge of economic policy-making will be tough as they cope with the vagaries of the global political economy.
With the US government about to officially fall under the divisive Donald Trump on January 20, we have to brace for bumpy rides and turbulence everywhere. Coping with the global political crisis requires leadership with dexterity. At home, we have a jam-packed calendar as we host the G20. It will be a logistics nightmare to host the likes of Trump, if he decides to attend.
Away from the G20, it’s the year before the storm of local elections, which may see the semblance of co-operation and decency in the cabinet of the government of national unity (GNU) disappear.
We have to savour the peace and the reduced political risk since the establishment of the GNU. We live in a completely different country than could have been the case if a creature other than the GNU was chosen as a coalition, as was possible after the May elections.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory.
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