Can the G20 summit hosted in South Africa this year be considered a success without US participation? While it is a no-brainer that the US is on a self-destructive path under the orange guy, the situation challenges South Africa and other nations to think strategically, instead of just turning up their noses at the madman in Washington.
South Africa will host the Group of 20 foreign ministers in Johannesburg on Thursday and Friday, and the finance ministers in Cape Town the following week. These meetings form part of the build-up to the November heads of state summit, and will give us glimpses into what the rest of the world thinks of the country as a convening force. It will also test its ability to craft a global agenda with the buy-in of influential nations.
It will be a warning sign if several foreign ministers and their finance counterparts miss this month’s events.
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, has already said he will not attend the summit in November. Last week he posted on X: “South Africa is doing very bad things. Expropriating private property. Using G20 to promote ‘solidarity, equality, & sustainability’. In other words: DEI and climate change. My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism.”
There is a strong view on the diplomatic circuit that it would be difficult to have practical, implementable outcomes without the participation of the US. That is especially so as it will be the next country to chair the G20 for a year after South Africa.
While some can dismiss the US’s importance in the unfolding global order, we have to be cognisant of how many countries in the “West” coalesce around the world’s biggest economy. As such, they move as a bloc. Nitpicking and disagreements may be easy at a summit where the leader of the industrialised world is not present.
South Africa needs a conference where most participants feel there are more win-win situations than unimplementable ideas that become part of the official agenda. South Africa will win when there is buy-in and ownership by the majority of G20 members of the contents of what will become the Johannesburg declaration.
It will be hard for our guys in Pretoria to navigate all the complexities as the country faces an existential crisis because of the voracious corporate plunderers in charge of the White House.
We have to assume the worst, that South Africa will lose its preferential exporter benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). As we do, it does not help cursing Trump as his agenda is patently selfish. We need to look at ourselves and ask if we planned for what has been staring at us for a while. Trump's second term was no surprise, and his agenda was in his manifesto and campaign statements.
Feigning anger and expressing disgust at THAT MAN helps no-one.
Under our government's “we will not be bullied” bluster, lies nothing. No plan on how to engage with Trump. No plan on how to find alternative markets, or cope with tariffs. This is how the ANC has run South Africa in recent years, and the chickens have come home to roost.
The Trump moment threatens to disrupt our economic policy in a big way.
It is easy to blame AfriForum and Solidarity for lobbying Trump to take a hostile stance against South Africa. AfriForum represents the worst style of regressive politics, of course.
We also have to recognise that the ANC government has alienated its biggest trading bloc — “the West” — for years over dysfunctional politics. For example, the government’s failure to condemn Russia and Hamas discredits the argument made in Pretoria that our stance is nonaligned. The nonalignment is believed only by those who propound the argument.
It is foolish to take actions that harm you economically and, more so, when your principal position is irrational and believable only to you.
South Africa hasn't had a consistent foreign policy since the Mbeki years. It is natural that we'd suffer on foreign policy as that is an extension of our suffering from bad domestic policy.
The Trump moment threatens to disrupt our economic policy in a big way. We will be forced to think not just in ideological terms but in terms of finding partners where our goods and services can go in a way that boosts our economy.
Donald Trump is about to help the ANC realise what it ought to have decades ago — that the economy and not anything else — is the absolute reason for politics to exist.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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