Geopolitics is great to watch and offer solutions to if you are a bystander like Tony Blair, the former British prime minister who made a whistle-stop in South Africa this week.
Blair has carved out a religion preaching the gospel of delivery and adaptability worldwide since he left office in 2007. That was a long time ago. George W Bush was the US president and has since been made to look like a dignified statesman compared to the current occupant of the White House.
“The election of Donald Trump is a huge change, and it is an inflection point, I think, in modern politics, and my advice to the leaders I work with is getting out of your comfort zone because this is a new era.”
Blair was speaking at a Standard Bank conference on Monday. “A lot of conventional thinking does not apply. And I think it's a new era, both in terms of the way America looks at the world and, therefore, the way the world has to look at itself.”
President Cyril Ramaphosa is one of those feeling the pressure of the Trump 2.0 mayhem. He is in a fight with the US, and, in Trump's parlance, he has “no cards to play”. There is nothing legitimate he can offer a transactional White House.
China has played with its tariffs to pressure US farmers, triggering trade talks. Mexico and Canada used Trump's auto sector demands to extract benefits, such as retaining key trade protections.
Ramaphosa might need to try to rekindle his bromance with Vladimir Putin and see if the Russian president can't help him smooth things over with Trump. Seemingly, Putin is the only man Trump is scared of. But what could Ramaphosa offer to Putin?
The idea of just holding on for the next four years is growing in some despondent parts of Pretoria. At the same time, the business sector is looking to extract some silver lining in terms of strategic crumbs from the gloomy picture of worsening relations.
It seems that is why someone like Neil “Mr Fix It” Froneman is part of the business delegation to Washington this week. It is hoped the team can salvage some critical minerals deals from the rubble of destroyed US-SA relations. South Africa will clearly lose its benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which grants favourable trade access to US markets, or Agoa itself will be terminated.
Reciprocal tariffs are expected next month. To the likes of Ramaphosa, this period threatens to upset confidence and economic growth just before things get into gear. The next two years are when tangible results from economic reforms were meant to be more visible, with economic growth likely to hit 2% for the first time in decades.
The first thing I should say, in all humility, is that one thing I've done learnt about leadership is that it's a lot easier to give advice than do the leadership, just to be clear.
— Tony Blair, former British prime minister
This is little growth in the global context, but life-changing for an economy like ours.
Ramaphosa is not alone. Every president who is not Putin or North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has a Trump headache.
“America has obviously changed its leadership, but leadership is changing all over Europe right now. It's not like this is just a phenomenon that's typical of the United States,” said Blair.
The Trump administration is forcing European countries to evaluate their economic status and capability, with the growing view that countries with military strength will trump the new geopolitical challenges.
“The first thing I should say, in all humility, is that one thing I've learnt about leadership is that it's a lot easier to give advice than do the leadership, just to be clear.”
Ramaphosa and his Blair-esque delivery unit, Operation Vulindlela, have to soldier on with their economic reforms agenda and manage their own controllables.
One simple difference between Blair's delivery unit and Ramaphosa's project offices, which house Operation Vulindlela, is that there is no political authority to drive the agenda. Operation Vulindlela relies on Ramaphosa's split attention. What is required is a conducive environment where ministers could be personally accountable for delivery failures.
In other words, Ramaphosa needs a minister-level authority who will be responsible for the agenda and ensure that ministers and bureaucrats follow through on commitments. This crisis in current geopolitics is a perfect opportunity to do things that would ordinarily be hard to sell in the political market. Several domestic levers exist, such as fighting corruption and improving the delivery of public services. A growing economy will help us weather the storm, albeit with a few scars.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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