BJORN LOMBORG: South Africa should not follow West's example on climate and development

In recent years climate anxiety has taken over many Western governments and most international organisations. The result has been ruinous policies that help little but undermine future prosperity needed to deal with a host of other problems. Fortunately, South Africa can avoid repeating these mistakes.

Climate change is a man-made problem, but campaigners and irresponsible politicians have distorted this out of all proportion and now falsely call it an existential threat that could eradicate humanity. This exaggeration grossly misrepresents the science in the UN Climate Panel reports. Moreover, it is repudiated by the world’s leading climate economists, including the only one to win the Nobel Prize. The cost of no further action on climate is equivalent to lowering GDP by 2-3% by century’s end — a problem, not the end of the world.

Yet incessant scare stories have driven some Western governments to enact immensely costly policies. The UK has gone further in climate policies over the past two decades than nearly any other country. As a result, the inflation-adjusted electricity price, weighted across households and industry, has tripled from 2003 to 2023. By comparison, the US electricity price has remained almost unchanged over the same period.

At the same time, the rich world is increasingly realising that it faces many other expensive challenges, including an ageing population bringing higher pension and healthcare costs, crumbling infrastructure, poor educational outcomes and a need for larger defence spending. Yet the EU has committed itself to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, which will cost over 10% of its GDP, or €3.3-trillion (R68-trillion) annually. This is more than today’s entire core spending across all 27 countries on health, education, police, courts, prisons, defence and the environment.

South Africa should not repeat the mistakes made by Western countries by diving headlong into ineffective climate policies. It has a record of huge achievements, vast potential, and — like every other country — myriad complex challenges. It’s important that South Africa gets the balance right between the challenges and opportunities in front of it. A considered, balanced response to climate change means rolling out solar and wind in the areas where that is sensible, while realising that the longer-term solution to climate change must be innovation.

We will not solve climate change by joining the British, being poorer, colder and with less power

In 1970, when hunger stalked 35% of the developing world, the answer was not making the whole world eat less to redistribute food. It was innovation through the Green Revolution, which dramatically increased yields and brought better varieties and more fertiliser. Likewise, we will not solve climate change by joining the British, being poorer, colder and with less power. Instead, the leading industrial nations that are responsible for the majority of carbon emissions need to ramp up innovation in future generations of low-carbon energy. Once they innovate clean energy so that it is cheaper than fossil fuels, everyone will be able to switch.

Finally, poverty alleviation is a crucial part of the response to climate change. Lifting people out of poverty reduces their vulnerability to climate shocks like heatwaves or hurricanes. Moreover, wealthier, more prosperous societies can afford better protection from the elements, along with better nutrition, healthcare and social protection. Wealthy countries can spend more on environmental protection, and all other good things.

Being smart about climate change also means that governments will have more resources to invest in solving other important challenges.

One such investment: We should boost maternal and newborn health through a simple package of basic emergency obstetric care and more family planning. Globally, this could save the lives of 166,000 mothers and 1.2-million newborns every year, delivering an astounding R87 in social benefits for each rand spent.

Another phenomenal investment: agricultural R&D to help South Africa’s farmers become more efficient. Globally, a modest investment of $5.5bn (R99bn) annually could go a long way and free 133-million people from hunger.

In total, prioritising the 12 best policies for development around the world could save 4.2-million lives every year and generate $1.1-trillion in economic benefits at a cost of just $35bn (R632.86bn) a year.

South Africa has immense possibilities ahead, if it can seize the opportunity to invest wisely and judiciously. It should avoid the singular climate-focus of some Western countries and invest based on rigorous economic science in areas where it can make the most impact and the greatest progress.

• Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus, visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and author of False Alarm and Best Things First.

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